Yes position
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.33K
- Potential profit
- $4.33K
- User PnL
- -$240.83
Polymarket Trader
alpaca
0x5da5db16e8424cd2a7a4a3920dd6ccada42ce620
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.11K
- Realized PnL
- $2.53K
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $699.37
- Potential payout
- $3.25K
- Potential profit
- $2.55K
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- -$250.63
No position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $376.89
- Potential payout
- $2.51K
- Potential profit
- $2.14K
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$123.11
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.16K
- Potential profit
- $2.16K
- User PnL
- -$230
Yes position
Caroline Ellison new boyfriend by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.38K
- Potential profit
- $1.38K
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.18K
- Potential profit
- $1.18K
- User PnL
- -$123
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $5.75
- Potential payout
- $1.04K
- Potential profit
- $1.04K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- $0.52
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.03K
- Potential profit
- $1.03K
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $9.83
- Potential payout
- $854.8
- Potential profit
- $844.97
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$10.17
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $4.37
- Potential payout
- $727.97
- Potential profit
- $723.6
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$7.48
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $685.56
- Potential profit
- $685.56
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $5.63
- Potential payout
- $625
- Potential profit
- $619.38
- Multiplier
- 111.11x
- User PnL
- $0.63
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $606.06
- Potential profit
- $606.06
- User PnL
- -$60
Yes position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $535.71
- Potential profit
- $535.71
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $8.73
- Potential payout
- $436.66
- Potential profit
- $427.93
- Multiplier
- 50.00x
- User PnL
- -$11.27
Yes position
Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $400
- User PnL
- -$40
No position
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $375
- Potential profit
- $375
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Ukraine election called in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $312.5
- Potential profit
- $312.5
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $301.36
- Potential profit
- $301.36
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $222.22
- Potential profit
- $222.22
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $1.44
- Potential payout
- $220.8
- Potential profit
- $219.37
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$18.56
Yes position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $203.13
- Potential profit
- $203.13
- User PnL
- -$20
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.18K
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $387.33
Yes position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $255.74
No position
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $157.49
No position
OpenSea token announcement in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.57
Yes position
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $101.32
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.45
No position
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.36
Yes position
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.3
No position
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $27.65
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.53
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.74
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
Ends Mar 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.23
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2AM ET
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.78
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.47
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- $8.47
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- $4.82
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3%
- Multiplier
- 33.33x
- User PnL
- $1.47
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 25.9%
- Multiplier
- 3.87x
- User PnL
- $0.64
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.7%
- Multiplier
- 27.40x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.5
No position
Will anyone say "iPhone" 50+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?
Ends Sep 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7.63
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$7.75
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes 30% 666.67 shares
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027?Yes 2.3% 854.8 shares
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?Yes 4.6% 436.65 shares
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?No 19.9% 2,512.6 shares
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes 28% 2,586.2 shares
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes 29% 5,172.41 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes 98.5% 1,408.45 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes 71% 1,408.45 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ETUp 48% 50.5 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ETUp 44% 24.64 shares
- Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?No 53.6% 643.35 shares
- Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?No 52% 245.61 shares