Polymarket Trader

MarcusAureliusII

0x5ebccbcbd7ee24e54f02c3f95839a9ce4ffdd01b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $944.48
Realized PnL: $278.69
Win rate: 75%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 8
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.13K
Potential profit: $4.13K
User PnL: -$150

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.5K
User PnL: -$150

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$500

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.54K
Potential profit: $1.54K
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.54K
Potential profit: $1.54K
User PnL: -$200

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $997.37
Potential profit: $997.37
User PnL: -$93.47

Yes position

Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $810.99
Potential payout: $977.1
Potential profit: $166.11
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $70.15

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $384.62
Potential profit: $384.62
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.1%
Current value: $37.78
Potential payout: $375.94
Potential profit: $338.16
Multiplier: 9.95x
User PnL: -$12.22

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.8%
Current value: $45.53
Potential payout: $331.13
Potential profit: $285.6
Multiplier: 7.27x
User PnL: -$4.47

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $294.12
Potential profit: $294.12
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.9%
Current value: $47.42
Potential payout: $251.55
Potential profit: $204.13
Multiplier: 5.31x
User PnL: -$1.38

No position

Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.18
Potential profit: $111.18
User PnL: -$50

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 26?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $73.53
Potential profit: $73.53
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $2.76
Potential payout: $61.31
Potential profit: $58.55
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$47.24

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 16-22?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $366.67

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 26?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.53

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $14.29

Yes position

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.97

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.77

No position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 81.2%
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0.22

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$67.76

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$100

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 19.4% 251.55 shares
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?

Yes 81% 62.36 shares
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?

Yes 84.3% 104.51 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Yes 10% 154.41 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Down 9.4% 997.37 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Yes 52% 96.15 shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Yes 18% 357.14 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 89.2% 112.35 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Yes 57% 58.26 shares
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?

Down 86.5% 57.77 shares
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?

Yes 86.3% 463.37 shares
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?

Yes 34% 173.44 shares