Polymarket Trader

smaug.the.fire.drake

0x5eebf757f31d287160f30f8e397970737d26e2b9

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $562.34
Realized PnL: $23.57
Win rate: 71.4%
Open positions: 11
Closed positions: 14
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 14?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.05K
Potential profit: $5.05K
User PnL: -$40

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.9%
Current value: $312.78
Potential payout: $329.76
Potential profit: $16.98
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2.78

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $203.49
Potential payout: $232.56
Potential profit: $29.07
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $3.49

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $209.52
Potential profit: $209.52
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $2.52
Potential payout: $90.06
Potential profit: $87.54
Multiplier: 35.71x
User PnL: -$9

No position

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $34
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $16
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: -$0.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 9AM ET

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.8
Potential profit: $16.8
User PnL: -$10

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5PM ET

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $15
User PnL: -$1.2

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.88
Potential profit: $13.88
User PnL: -$3.47

No position

Will Trump praise Allah again by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $7.5
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $2.5
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $0.1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 16?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $2.05
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $7.95
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$0.45

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 14?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.43

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 9AM ET

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.19

No position

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.12

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10AM ET

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 8AM ET

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.3

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.16

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 96%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $2.15

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7AM ET

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.15

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 12PM ET

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.62

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 1PM ET

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.29

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7AM ET

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$0.06

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10AM ET

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 8AM ET

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.75

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?

No 69% 25.54 shares
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

No 99.1% 44.52 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 16?

Up 25% 10 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5PM ET

Up 8% 15 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 9AM ET

Down 99.9% 12 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 9AM ET

Up 59.5% 16.8 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 9AM ET

Down 38% 6 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 8AM ET

Up 34% 5 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7AM ET

Up 57% 5 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7AM ET

Down 40% 17 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7AM ET

Down 26% 7 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7AM ET

Down 31% 12.9 shares