Polymarket Trader

stevetrabajo

0x5f000961577b19633399c66a70eff7716b4403ad

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $287.95
Realized PnL: $580.49
Win rate: 50%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $432.7
Potential profit: $432.7
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 53.2%
Current value: $195.63
Potential payout: $367.73
Potential profit: $172.1
Multiplier: 1.88x
User PnL: $148.63

Yes position

Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $39.59
Potential payout: $344.29
Potential profit: $304.7
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$19.41

Yes position

Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $336.6
Potential profit: $336.6
User PnL: -$18.5

Yes position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 21.9%
Current value: $36.42
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $130.25
Multiplier: 4.58x
User PnL: $21.42

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $151.52
Potential profit: $151.52
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.06
Potential payout: $123.8
Potential profit: $123.74
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$29.94

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $115.38
Potential profit: $115.38
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $113.05
Potential profit: $113.05
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $105.26
Potential profit: $105.26
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $97.95
Potential profit: $97.95
User PnL: -$19.59

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $96.69
Potential profit: $96.69
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $88.87
Potential profit: $88.87
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $16.25
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $67.08
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$3.75

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.72
Potential profit: $20.72
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $174.46

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $114.83

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.33

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.84

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.7

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.16

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.06

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.29

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.05

Yes position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.01

Yes position

Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.23

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.63

No position

Will the US strike Somalia next?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?

Ends Jan 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$2.34

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$2.92

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.24

No position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the price of XRP be above $2.20 on December 9?

Ends Dec 9, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$8.38

Yes position

Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$8.48

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$9.72

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Yes 18.9% 143.08 shares
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Yes 5.5% 336.6 shares
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Yes 97.4% 33.89 shares
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Yes 14.2% 204.29 shares
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Yes 48% 9.13 shares
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?

Yes 19% 105.26 shares
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?

Yes 3.6% 41.66 shares
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Yes 96.1% 46.87 shares
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Yes 17% 58.82 shares
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?

Yes 2.8% 357.14 shares
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?

Yes 20% 97.95 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Yes 16.4% 60.98 shares