No position
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $42.64
- Potential payout
- $879.15
- Potential profit
- $836.51
- Multiplier
- 20.62x
- User PnL
- -$24.4
Polymarket Trader
Varoosh
0x5f2c87475eea88ddf2f702f5c6dd39fa1c27fdba
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $858.37
- Realized PnL
- $830.36
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $514.13
- Potential payout
- $568.1
- Potential profit
- $53.97
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $10.53
Yes position
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $357.14
- Potential profit
- $357.14
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 29%
- Current value
- $72.5
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $177.5
- Multiplier
- 3.45x
- User PnL
- -$55
Yes position
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $10.31
- Potential payout
- $204.08
- Potential profit
- $193.78
- Multiplier
- 19.80x
- User PnL
- $0.31
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $141
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $59
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- -$19
Yes position
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $134.41
- Potential profit
- $134.41
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $13.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $86.5
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 21.1%
- Current value
- $19.49
- Potential payout
- $92.59
- Potential profit
- $73.1
- Multiplier
- 4.75x
- User PnL
- -$0.51
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $75
- Potential profit
- $75
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.37
- Potential payout
- $73.13
- Potential profit
- $72.76
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$39.63
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $70.18
- Potential profit
- $70.18
- User PnL
- -$40
No position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $67
- Potential profit
- $67
- User PnL
- -$40
No position
James Comey arrested by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $62.5
- Potential profit
- $62.5
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $41.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $8.75
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $1.25
Yes position
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $33.33
- User PnL
- -$4
No position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.27
- Potential profit
- $29.27
- User PnL
- -$12
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $3.19
- Potential payout
- $27.78
- Potential profit
- $24.58
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$1.81
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.66
- Potential profit
- $24.66
- User PnL
- -$22
Yes position
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.1
- Potential profit
- $12.1
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.1
- Potential profit
- $9.1
- User PnL
- -$3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.35
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.33
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.81
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.1
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $55.26
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.22
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $47.16
No position
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.26
No position
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $40.58
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $32.3
No position
James Comey arrested by April 29?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $30.96
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.18
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.43
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $24.1
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.93
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.71
No position
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.19
No position
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.18
No position
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $16.66
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $11.45
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.68
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.02
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.81
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.67
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Yes 14% 100 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Yes 51% 250 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Yes 74% 538.3 shares
- US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?No 95.6% 147.05 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 98.6% 207.62 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 92% 330 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 80% 200 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?No 78.7% 594.62 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 80% 50 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 84% 238.1 shares
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?No 97.9% 157.4 shares
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No 45% 35.08 shares