0x5F3ee9c40Be255D1C18cA38bf4Ab94b564C75337-1776862065527

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $505.27
Potential payout: $590.96
Potential profit: $85.69
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $27.78

No position

Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 96.1%
Current value: $499.22
Potential payout: $519.75
Potential profit: $20.53
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$0.78

No position

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $503.83
Potential payout: $511.25
Potential profit: $7.41
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $3.83

No position

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $311.81
Potential payout: $424.23
Potential profit: $112.42
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$2.86

No position

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $389.7
Potential payout: $419.03
Potential profit: $29.33
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $4.19

No position

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $350.26
Potential payout: $416.98
Potential profit: $66.72
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: -$7.74

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 91.7%
Current value: $275.1
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $24.9
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $2.86

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 92.1%
Current value: $276.29
Potential payout: $299.99
Potential profit: $23.7
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $13.1

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $145.5
Potential payout: $299.99
Potential profit: $154.49
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: -$16

No position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $239.88
Potential payout: $297.99
Potential profit: $58.11
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$0.13

No position

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $218.75
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $31.25
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

Ends Sep 6, 2026

Implied probability: 95.4%
Current value: $238.38
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $11.63
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $3.38

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $214.59
Potential payout: $218.86
Potential profit: $4.27
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $17.62

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $146.57
Potential payout: $169.44
Potential profit: $22.88
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $16.57

No position

Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June?

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $141.04
Potential payout: $148
Potential profit: $6.96
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2.64

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $146.85
Potential payout: $147
Potential profit: $0.15
User PnL: $13.08

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $129.94
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$57.14

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $36
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $64
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $88.95
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $11.05
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $14.25

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $96.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $3.55
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $18.45

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $67
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $33
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: $13

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $93.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $6.5
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.5

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $97.2
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $2.8
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $3.2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125.86

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.17

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 5?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.68

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.84

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 8%
Multiplier: 12.58x
User PnL: $92.4

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4?

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $82.12

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.34

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.37

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 2?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.58

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.33

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69

No position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 13?

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.64

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.66

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 9?

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.31

Yes position

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.08

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 1?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.52

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 1?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10?