ansatz

Implied probability: 18.8%
Current value: $317.64
Potential payout: $1.69K
Potential profit: $1.38K
Multiplier: 5.33x
User PnL: $57.77

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.8%
Current value: $182.11
Potential payout: $1.69K
Potential profit: $1.51K
Multiplier: 9.30x
User PnL: $1.85

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $236.33
Potential payout: $1.69K
Potential profit: $1.46K
Multiplier: 7.17x
User PnL: $92.86

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $87.25
Potential payout: $1.69K
Potential profit: $1.61K
Multiplier: 19.42x
User PnL: -$46.77

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $234.63
Potential payout: $1.69K
Potential profit: $1.46K
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: -$25.35

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $90.63
Potential payout: $1.69K
Potential profit: $1.6K
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$0.49

Yes position

Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $4.24
Potential payout: $1.69K
Potential profit: $1.69K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$14.69

Yes position

Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $499.76
Potential payout: $1.69K
Potential profit: $1.19K
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: $26.73

Yes position

Mamdani team sweeps primaries?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $818.61
Potential payout: $822.31
Potential profit: $3.7
User PnL: $544.32

Yes position

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.18
Potential payout: $364.68
Potential profit: $364.49
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$16.09

Yes position

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $1.56
Potential payout: $208.26
Potential profit: $206.7
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.1

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $179.92
Potential payout: $208
Potential profit: $28.08
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $31.19

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $27.84
Potential payout: $206.25
Potential profit: $178.4
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$3.16

Yes position

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $2.7
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $197.3
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$0.5

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $107
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $93
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $19.5

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $5.7
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $194.3
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.4
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $198.6
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$0.8

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $4.5
Potential payout: $199.99
Potential profit: $195.49
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $8.25
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $141.75
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$2.25

No position

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $50.25
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $99.75
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $4.05

Yes position

Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $1.94
Potential payout: $149.35
Potential profit: $147.41
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: $0.3

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 76.1%
Current value: $106.54
Potential payout: $140
Potential profit: $33.46
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $5.53

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 97.6%
Current value: $136.64
Potential payout: $140
Potential profit: $3.36
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $34.84

No position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 59%
Current value: $82.59
Potential payout: $139.99
Potential profit: $57.4
Multiplier: 1.69x
User PnL: $27.32

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $76.62

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.6

No position

Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.33

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.4

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.5

No position

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.95

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.9

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 58.5%
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $14.8

No position

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $11.6

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.4

No position

Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.5

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7.8%
Multiplier: 12.90x
User PnL: $9.33

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.9

No position

Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 82.5%
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $8.77

No position

Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.73

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 98.4%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $8.46

Yes position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $8.4

No position

Will the US federal government take a stake in IonQ, Inc.?

Implied probability: 83%
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $8.31

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.37

No position

Will MegaETH launch a token by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.3%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $6.52

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $6.36

No position

Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $5.98

No position

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?