No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $1.83K
- Potential payout
- $1.9K
- Potential profit
- $65.55
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $171.17
Polymarket Trader
0x5Ff7455790cd4a08ce14eB5887E6B12279e0F7F0-1775029761019
0x5ff7455790cd4a08ce14eb5887e6b12279e0f7f0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $8.78K
- Realized PnL
- $1.25K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $1.58K
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $19.98
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $212.1
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $1.48K
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $21.75
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $104.33
No position
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $991.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $8.5
- User PnL
- $78.24
N
No position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $919.87
- Potential payout
- $958.7
- Potential profit
- $38.83
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $9.18
No position
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $744.38
- Potential payout
- $750
- Potential profit
- $5.63
- User PnL
- $42.16
Yes position
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $676.06
- Potential payout
- $738.86
- Potential profit
- $62.8
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $21.7
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $461.55
- Potential payout
- $510
- Potential profit
- $48.45
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $6.55
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$469.85
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $89.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $10.5
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $5.5
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $5.55
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $0.45
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
No position
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $4.73
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.28
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.12
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $188.18
No position
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 42%
- Multiplier
- 2.38x
- User PnL
- $176.26
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $169.26
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $148
No position
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- User PnL
- $125.76
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.54
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- User PnL
- $49.1
Yes position
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Multiplier
- 111.11x
- User PnL
- $37.45
No position
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.73
No position
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $30.42
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.51
No position
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $24.41
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.8
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.2
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $20
No position
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $17.54
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.36
No position
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $15.86
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.42
No position
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.65
No position
NATO dissolves before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $9.13
No position
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $8.65
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?No 95% 365 shares
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?No 94.9% 39 shares
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?No 94.8% 11 shares
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?No 99% 255.98 shares
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?No 99.1% 100 shares
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?No 99.2% 14.94 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 97.5% 100 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 97.4% 253 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 97.3% 30 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 97.3% 40.1 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 97.1% 20.1 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 97.1% 26.25 shares