Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.98K
- Potential profit
- $6.98K
- User PnL
- -$99.99
Polymarket Trader
bigmaw
0x5ff84b0e40b8bb7a189118f49ba7b8f74fab973d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $145.69
- Realized PnL
- $8.63K
- Win rate
- 75%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 16
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.33K
- Potential profit
- $5.33K
- User PnL
- -$271.87
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.58K
- Potential profit
- $4.58K
- User PnL
- -$51
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.85K
- Potential profit
- $3.85K
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.18K
- Potential profit
- $3.18K
- User PnL
- -$169.89
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.93K
- Potential profit
- $2.93K
- User PnL
- -$95.12
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.63K
- Potential profit
- $2.63K
- User PnL
- -$140
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.26K
- Potential profit
- $2.26K
- User PnL
- -$175
Yes position
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $9.53
- Potential payout
- $1.91K
- Potential profit
- $1.9K
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$90.47
Yes position
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.85K
- Potential profit
- $1.85K
- User PnL
- -$425.28
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $14.4
- Potential payout
- $1.69K
- Potential profit
- $1.68K
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$35.6
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.56K
- Potential profit
- $1.56K
- User PnL
- -$350
Yes position
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.43K
- Potential profit
- $1.43K
- User PnL
- -$252.78
Yes position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $5.58
- Potential payout
- $1.39K
- Potential profit
- $1.39K
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$44.24
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- User PnL
- -$160
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$349.02
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $952.38
- Potential profit
- $952.38
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Park Sung-jae in jail by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $922.75
- Potential profit
- $922.75
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $888.89
- Potential profit
- $888.89
- User PnL
- -$80
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $846.52
- Potential profit
- $846.52
- User PnL
- -$110
Yes position
Netanyahu out by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $833.33
- Potential profit
- $833.33
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $802.94
- Potential profit
- $802.94
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $116.19
- Potential payout
- $801.28
- Potential profit
- $685.1
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$93.81
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.66K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.81K
Yes position
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $675.69
Yes position
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $436.86
Yes position
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $262.79
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $259.04
No position
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $234.08
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.26
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.15
Yes position
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.66
No position
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.63
Yes position
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.78
Yes position
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.75
Yes position
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$18.91
Yes position
Will Moon Jin-seok win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$19.96
Yes position
Will Kim Young-hwan win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$108.27
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026?Yes 8.6% 211 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Yes 29% 345.17 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?Yes 3% 1,693.71 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy?Yes 7.7% 430.59 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?Yes 1.3% 3,849.23 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?Yes 12.8% 623.17 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 27.9% 359.04 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?Yes 29.9% 334.37 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?Yes 28.3% 353.24 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 35% 285.71 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan?Yes 1.2% 802.94 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?Yes 1.9% 1,555.05 shares