Polymarket Trader

Danieljay

0x6062830c5a8a453cb57048da505234aaca304084

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.04K
Realized PnL: $12.23K
Win rate: 83.3%
Open positions: 6
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.97K
Potential profit: $4.97K
User PnL: -$3.09K

Yes position

Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.8%
Current value: $510.57
Potential payout: $3.23K
Potential profit: $2.72K
Multiplier: 6.33x
User PnL: -$267.09

Yes position

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 23.8%
Current value: $527.35
Potential payout: $2.22K
Potential profit: $1.69K
Multiplier: 4.21x
User PnL: -$272.65

Yes position

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $435.67
Potential profit: $435.67
User PnL: -$137.6

Yes position

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $412.82
Potential profit: $412.82
User PnL: -$348.4

No position

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $93.9
Potential profit: $93.9
User PnL: -$80

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.19K

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.03K

No position

U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.15K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $929.2

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $687.14

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $532.05

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $476.78

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $465.71

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $454.26

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $438.16

No position

US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $425.4

Yes position

Will there be between 6 and 9 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $292.7

No position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $279.16

Yes position

Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $253.52

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $205.01

Yes position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $180.62

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $175.26

No position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $155.37

No position

Iran leadership change by March 13?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.7

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.83

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$30.38

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$33.87

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$62.18

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$78.44

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes 3.2% 1,019.84 shares
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes 30.6% 489.43 shares
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes 32.2% 241.18 shares
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes 22% 909.63 shares
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes 14.7% 1,019.84 shares
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes 22% 1,591.21 shares
Kash Patel out by June 30?

Yes 30.2% 833.33 shares
Kash Patel out by June 30?

Yes 60% 833.33 shares
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes 38.8% 1,547.21 shares
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026?

Yes 87.3% 2,003.52 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?

No 99.9% 2,081.24 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?

No 86.5% 2,081.24 shares