Pantheon1

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $2.94K
Potential payout: $3.06K
Potential profit: $124.12
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $95.34

Yes position

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $1.79K
Potential payout: $2.53K
Potential profit: $747.66
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $344.6

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $1.62K
Potential payout: $1.77K
Potential profit: $150.1
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $196.44

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $942.52
Potential payout: $1.09K
Potential profit: $147.1
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $94.52

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $942.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $57.5
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $3.5

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $542.75
Potential payout: $650
Potential profit: $107.25
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $61.25

No position

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $352.01
Potential payout: $411.71
Potential profit: $59.7
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0.77

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 33%
Current value: $118.8
Potential payout: $360
Potential profit: $241.2
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: $18.1

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $302.74
Potential payout: $349.99
Potential profit: $47.25
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.25

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $290.7
Potential payout: $340
Potential profit: $49.3
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $21.5

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $298.21
Potential payout: $300.01
Potential profit: $1.8
User PnL: $4.2

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $268.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $31.5
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $4.5

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $197.1
Potential payout: $270
Potential profit: $72.9
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $21.27

No position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $222.5
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $27.5
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 95.6%
Current value: $198.54
Potential payout: $207.68
Potential profit: $9.14
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $5.76

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $170
Potential payout: $199.99
Potential profit: $30
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $14

Yes position

Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 4.4%
Current value: $6.74
Potential payout: $153.13
Potential profit: $146.39
Multiplier: 22.73x
User PnL: -$2.84

No position

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $90.25
Potential payout: $102.56
Potential profit: $12.31
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$0.89

No position

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $86.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $13.5
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $5.5

Yes position

Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $55.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $44.5
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $96.55
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $3.45
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $19.55

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $1.89
Potential payout: $96.84
Potential profit: $94.95
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$1.02

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $65.69
Potential payout: $89.99
Potential profit: $24.3
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $8.45

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $1.4
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $78.6
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$9

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $1.32K

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04K

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $884.33

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $531.47

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $343.88

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $272.99

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $255.93

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $250.8

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $235.98

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $202.81

Yes position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $188.91

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $187.11

No position

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $174.47

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170.39

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $169.47

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $165.73

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $155.41

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $152.35

No position

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $142.63

Yes position

Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.8

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.61

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126.91

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $116.35

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?