Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.31K
- Potential profit
- $32.31K
- User PnL
- -$23.43K
Polymarket Trader
cookiejar
0x614ef98a8be021de3a974942b2fb98794ff34f1b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $13.51K
- Realized PnL
- $525.56K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $12.17K
- Potential payout
- $12.22K
- Potential profit
- $48.89
- User PnL
- $1.32K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.6K
- Potential profit
- $3.6K
- User PnL
- -$2.77K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.48K
- Potential profit
- $2.48K
- User PnL
- -$2.14K
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $1.27K
- Potential payout
- $1.28K
- Potential profit
- $10.24
- User PnL
- $1.28
Yes position
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $64.74
- Potential payout
- $1.18K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$52.97
No position
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $584.26
- Potential profit
- $584.26
- User PnL
- -$181.12
Yes position
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $221.07
- Potential profit
- $221.07
- User PnL
- -$13.71
Yes position
Will "On The Way" by AiNA THE END (DAN DA DAN Season 2) win Best Anime Song at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $175.23
- Potential profit
- $175.23
- User PnL
- -$18.28
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60.72
- Potential profit
- $60.72
- User PnL
- -$23.43
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$11.6
Yes position
Will "Watch Me!" by YOASOBI (WITCH WATCH) win Best Anime Song at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11
- Potential profit
- $11
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Yes position
Will "ReawakeR (feat. Felix of Stray Kids)" by LiSA (Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow-) win Best Anime Song at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$0.76
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.2%
- Current value
- $0.09
- Potential payout
- $1
- Potential profit
- $0.91
- Multiplier
- 10.93x
- User PnL
- -$0.41
No position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 90.9%
- Current value
- $0.91
- Potential payout
- $1
- Potential profit
- $0.09
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.41
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $177.91K
Yes position
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $67m?
Ends Sep 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.4K
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $113K on August 21 at 4PM ET?
Ends Aug 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.47K
Yes position
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $115-125m?
Ends Jul 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.19K
Yes position
Will MrBeast raise 40m on Sunday August 31?
Ends Sep 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.67K
No position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.69K
Yes position
Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 45m?
Ends Oct 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.44K
No position
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.13K
No position
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.02K
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.38K
No position
Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.58K
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.54K
Yes position
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.1K
Yes position
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m?
Ends Jul 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.92K
Yes position
Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m?
Ends Nov 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.52K
Yes position
Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $39m?
Ends Sep 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.95K
Yes position
Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m?
Ends Sep 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.78K
No position
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m?
Ends Jul 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.65K
Yes position
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.53K
No position
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.51K
Yes position
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 12-15%?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.46K
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $117K July 14–20?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.31K
No position
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.85K
Yes position
Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.55K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 16.9% 71.97 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?No 70% 1,300 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?No 70% 503 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.4% 2,000 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?Yes 58% 20 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?Yes 38.6% 60.72 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Yes 26.1% 2,034.72 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 97.1% 1,200 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes 98% 1,543.81 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No 94% 4,404.73 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No 93.7% 19,011.4 shares
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes 76.5% 6,726.75 shares