Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $405.88
- Potential profit
- $405.88
- User PnL
- -$69
Polymarket Trader
bitoshino
0x615f215dde95eeec248c0c2547cee83a789eeaa5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $78.44
- Realized PnL
- $219.57
- Win rate
- 85.7%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 7
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $11.48
- Potential payout
- $264.58
- Potential profit
- $253.1
- Multiplier
- 23.04x
- User PnL
- -$21.52
Yes position
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $4.88
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $245.13
- Multiplier
- 51.28x
- User PnL
- -$2.13
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $246.35
- Potential profit
- $246.35
- User PnL
- -$59.91
Yes position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $6
- Potential payout
- $171.43
- Potential profit
- $165.43
- Multiplier
- 28.57x
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$12
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $133.33
- Potential profit
- $133.33
- User PnL
- -$12
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $20.34
- Potential payout
- $131.25
- Potential profit
- $110.91
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.66
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $13.21
- Potential payout
- $110.53
- Potential profit
- $97.32
- Multiplier
- 8.37x
- User PnL
- -$7.79
Yes position
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $95.45
- Potential profit
- $95.45
- User PnL
- -$21
Yes position
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in January?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $75.4
- Potential profit
- $75.4
- User PnL
- -$21
Yes position
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.2%
- Current value
- $14.71
- Potential payout
- $66.25
- Potential profit
- $51.54
- Multiplier
- 4.50x
- User PnL
- -$6.29
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $57.14
- Potential profit
- $57.14
- User PnL
- -$12
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 18.3%
- Current value
- $7.82
- Potential payout
- $42.86
- Potential profit
- $35.04
- Multiplier
- 5.48x
- User PnL
- -$4.18
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.14
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.52
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.02
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.84
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 25.8%
- Multiplier
- 3.88x
- User PnL
- $11.77
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $9.92
Yes position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$5.63
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes 24.3% 246.35 shares
- Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 2.8% 250 shares
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yes 16% 131.25 shares
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 7% 171.43 shares
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 31.7% 66.25 shares
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes 9% 133.33 shares
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes 24.5% 97.01 shares
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes 53% 58.33 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes 98.8% 99.35 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes 56% 99.36 shares
- Government shutdown on Saturday?No 74.6% 72.41 shares
- Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?Yes 61% 143.66 shares