virtua

Implied probability: 42%
Current value: $17.51
Potential payout: $41.7
Potential profit: $24.19
Multiplier: 2.38x
User PnL: $10.84

No position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $9.64
Potential payout: $23.22
Potential profit: $13.58
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $1.28

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $0.61
Potential payout: $17.64
Potential profit: $17.03
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$3.8

No position

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $9.99
Potential payout: $15.98
Potential profit: $5.99
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $0.56

No position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $12.04
Potential payout: $13.16
Potential profit: $1.12
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $2.04

No position

Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.59
Potential profit: $12.59
User PnL: -$2.14

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $3.57
Potential payout: $12.31
Potential profit: $8.74
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: $1.6

Yes position

Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $2.22
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $9.78
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$1.74

No position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $9.21
Potential payout: $11.89
Potential profit: $2.68
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $0.54

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $9.56
Potential profit: $8.37
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$1.39

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $4.29
Potential payout: $9.43
Potential profit: $5.14
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: -$2.03

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.09
Potential profit: $9.09
User PnL: -$6

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $4.76
Potential payout: $9.06
Potential profit: $4.3
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: $0.68

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 79.4%
Current value: $6.8
Potential payout: $8.57
Potential profit: $1.77
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $3.33

No position

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $7.56
Potential payout: $8.54
Potential profit: $0.98
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $1.49

Yes position

Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.48
Potential profit: $8.48
User PnL: -$2.29

Yes position

Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Ends Oct 5, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $5.27
Potential payout: $8.43
Potential profit: $3.16
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $1.05

No position

Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $7.14
Potential payout: $8.4
Potential profit: $1.26
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.76

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $7.55
Potential payout: $8.34
Potential profit: $0.79
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $1.38

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.83
Potential profit: $7.83
User PnL: -$5.17

Yes position

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $5.77
Potential payout: $7.75
Potential profit: $1.98
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $1.51

No position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $7.13
Potential payout: $7.47
Potential profit: $0.34
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2.65

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $7.21
Potential payout: $7.31
Potential profit: $0.1
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $4.51

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.59

No position

Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.54

No position

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.14

Yes position

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.96

No position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.43

Yes position

Trump kiss by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.38

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.62

Yes position

USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.59

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.57

Yes position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.46

No position

Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.4

Yes position

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.33

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.1

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.06

Yes position

Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.05

Yes position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.89

No position

Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?

Ends Jan 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.78

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.67

No position

Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.59

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $2.55

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.53

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.34

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?