Polymarket Trader

ArdillarRabiossa

0x6293cbc9f79b2d1573eaffc7afbe2a4e6b47d14d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $73.38
Realized PnL: -$4.36
Win rate: 25%
Open positions: 16
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $2.35
Potential payout: $4.7K
Potential profit: $4.7K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$5.85

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $2.76
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $1.1K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$1.87

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $1.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $198.1
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $0.7

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.7
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $199.3
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $5.04
Potential payout: $176.97
Potential profit: $171.93
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: -$0.17

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $6.35
Potential payout: $165.04
Potential profit: $158.68
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: $1.95

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 16.4%
Current value: $7.08
Potential payout: $43.32
Potential profit: $36.24
Multiplier: 6.12x
User PnL: $1.32

No position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $11.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $8.3
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.9
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 52.2%
Current value: $5.62
Potential payout: $10.77
Potential profit: $5.16
Multiplier: 1.92x
User PnL: $4.24

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $8.55
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $1.45
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $1.05

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $6.55
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $3.45
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $0.15

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 74%
Current value: $5.92
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $2.08
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $4.9
Potential payout: $6.41
Potential profit: $1.51
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $2.84
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $3.41
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: -$0.16

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.97

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.31

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.9

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.74

No position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.67

Yes position

Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.09

Yes position

Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.6

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.22

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.56

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.6

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.6

Yes position

Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.64

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.73

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.9

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

No 64% 10 shares
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

Yes 3.1% 11.99 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

No 61% 10 shares
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

Yes 3.3% 64.98 shares
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?

Yes 23% 8.7 shares
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

Yes 13.3% 43.32 shares
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

No 73% 8 shares
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Yes 96.2% 29.99 shares
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Yes 0.1% 2,000 shares
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Yes 0.4% 255 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

No 48% 10 shares
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Yes 2.3% 68 shares