orcyun32

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $156.58
Potential payout: $183.14
Potential profit: $26.56
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $6.58

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $156.25
Potential profit: $156.25
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $155.52
Potential profit: $155.52
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $62.31
Potential payout: $153.85
Potential profit: $91.54
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$37.69

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $149.7
Potential profit: $149.7
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $143.86
Potential profit: $143.86
User PnL: -$110

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $128.21
Potential profit: $128.21
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $113.06
Potential payout: $122.22
Potential profit: $9.17
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $3.06

Yes position

Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $75.47
Potential profit: $75.47
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.6%
Current value: $14.6
Potential payout: $71.03
Potential profit: $56.43
Multiplier: 4.87x
User PnL: -$10.4

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $48.51
Potential payout: $59.52
Potential profit: $11.02
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$1.49

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $58.18
Potential profit: $58.18
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $50.85
Potential payout: $56.82
Potential profit: $5.97
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.85

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $51.3
Potential payout: $53.02
Potential profit: $1.72
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $1.3

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21?

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $46.97
Potential profit: $46.97
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 22?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $41.67
User PnL: -$20

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 4PM ET

Ends Jan 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.23
Potential profit: $38.23
User PnL: -$9.75

Timberwolves position

Timberwolves vs. Rockets

Ends Jan 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.33
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $16.6
Potential payout: $27.44
Potential profit: $10.84
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $1.6

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $8.67
Potential payout: $20.41
Potential profit: $11.73
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$1.33

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 15?

Ends Jan 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$7.2

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.86
Potential profit: $17.86
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 22?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.67
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 22?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $14.29
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.87

Yes position

Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.69

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.04

Yes position

Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.21

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.19

Gold position

First to 5k: Gold or ETH?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.54

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.2

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.92

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 13?

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.78

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.24

Yes position

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.94

Yes position

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.03

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 18?

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.29

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 20?

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.79

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.28

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.17

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 18?

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.99

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 24?

Ends Jan 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.17

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on January 26?

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.32

No position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.13

Seahawks position

Seahawks vs. Patriots

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.71

Yes position

Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?