Polymarket Trader

cafecito

0x63507953b558358238b2c7afe40d07d950ea16d1

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $307.22
Realized PnL: $261.07
Win rate: 36.4%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 11
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.87K
Potential profit: $6.87K
User PnL: -$419.99

Yes position

US strike on Mexico by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $281.46
Potential payout: $1.76K
Potential profit: $1.48K
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$166.67

Yes position

Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $8.76
Potential payout: $922.45
Potential profit: $913.69
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$11.24

Yes position

Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $6.54
Potential payout: $769.23
Potential profit: $762.69
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$3.46

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $588.24
Potential profit: $588.24
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $553.58
Potential profit: $553.58
User PnL: -$70

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $530.79
Potential profit: $530.79
User PnL: -$37

Yes position

Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $477.14
Potential profit: $477.14
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $10.45
Potential payout: $454.55
Potential profit: $444.09
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $249.51
Potential profit: $249.51
User PnL: -$92.32

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $131.71
Potential profit: $131.71
User PnL: -$1.91

Yes position

Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $131.58
Potential profit: $131.58
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $559.09

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $479.33

Yes position

US strike on Mexico by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $116.93

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.03

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.63

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$7.69

Yes position

US strike on Mexico by January 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$199.73

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$246.12

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$502.14

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?

Yes 7% 530.79 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?

Yes 18% 163.15 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET

Up 25% 3.57 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?

Yes 19% 52.63 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?

Yes 18.1% 110.53 shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

No 12% 166.67 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

Yes 11.8% 168.97 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

Yes 13% 384.62 shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

No 1.7% 588.24 shares
US strike on Mexico by December 31?

Yes 23% 434.78 shares
US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Yes 90% 267.83 shares
US strike on Mexico by December 31?

Yes 26.3% 1,324.37 shares