test.saveliyb.test

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $2.72
Potential payout: $544
Potential profit: $541.28
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$29.92

Yes position

Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $4.53
Potential payout: $532.89
Potential profit: $528.36
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$91.41

Yes position

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $68.82
Potential payout: $444
Potential profit: $375.18
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$206.46

Yes position

Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $416
Potential payout: $416
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $177.59

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 45%
Current value: $141.3
Potential payout: $314
Potential profit: $172.7
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: $31.4

Yes position

Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?

Ends Oct 21, 2026

Implied probability: 8.1%
Current value: $20.72
Potential payout: $255.84
Potential profit: $235.11
Multiplier: 12.35x
User PnL: -$28.68

Yes position

Weed rescheduled by December 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 27.8%
Current value: $70.92
Potential payout: $255.09
Potential profit: $184.18
Multiplier: 3.60x
User PnL: -$34.09

Yes position

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $30.43
Potential payout: $234.06
Potential profit: $203.64
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$35.52

Yes position

Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $213
Potential profit: $212.89
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$28.81

Yes position

Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $3.56
Potential payout: $203.59
Potential profit: $200.03
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$38.85

Yes position

Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?

Implied probability: 90.1%
Current value: $180.26
Potential payout: $200.18
Potential profit: $19.92
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $68.26

Yes position

Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $140.07
Potential payout: $174
Potential profit: $33.93
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $12.69

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $22.92
Potential payout: $169.81
Potential profit: $146.89
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$22.92

Yes position

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $8.33
Potential payout: $151.5
Potential profit: $143.17
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$14.83

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $3.87
Potential payout: $124.87
Potential profit: $121
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: -$24.29

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $21
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $99
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$14.04

Yes position

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 59.4%
Current value: $70.34
Potential payout: $118.52
Potential profit: $48.18
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $8.28

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 25.1%
Current value: $28.81
Potential payout: $115
Potential profit: $86.19
Multiplier: 3.99x
User PnL: -$6.57

Yes position

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $10.26
Potential payout: $114
Potential profit: $103.74
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$18.24

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $113
Potential profit: $113
User PnL: -$28.43

Yes position

Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $29.83
Potential payout: $112.57
Potential profit: $82.74
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $6.47

No position

Blue tsunami in 2026?

Ends Nov 30, 2026

Implied probability: 59%
Current value: $63.72
Potential payout: $108
Potential profit: $44.28
Multiplier: 1.69x
User PnL: $7.56

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.69K

Yes position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.47K

Yes position

Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $886.31

Yes position

Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $721.82

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $675

Yes position

Will HŠK Zrinjski Mostar win on 2025-11-27?

Ends Nov 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $665.85

Yes position

Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $578.59

Yes position

Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $527.7

Yes position

Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-11-30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $396.77

Yes position

House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $232.54

Yes position

Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $206.65

Yes position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $194.17

Yes position

Will Unknown’s Mystery Model win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $161.18

Yes position

Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $153.36

Yes position

Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $141.97

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.68

Yes position

Will Amy Madigan be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.72

Yes position

Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.07

Yes position

Will VVD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.56

Lakers position

Lakers vs. Rockets

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.92

Yes position

Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.74

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.54

Yes position

Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.4

Yes position

Will Trump sue the BBC?