No position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $410.87
- Potential payout
- $903
- Potential profit
- $492.14
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$86.87
Polymarket Trader
MadisonThompson3575
0x63a24838a34a27a5f4a33f71197974e4eb5b3dfc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $679.54
- Realized PnL
- $2.1K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Medline's market cap be between $35B and $45B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Dec 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $841
- Potential profit
- $841
- User PnL
- -$109.33
Yes position
Databricks IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $168.02
- Potential payout
- $715
- Potential profit
- $546.98
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$303.88
Yes position
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $387
- Potential profit
- $387
- User PnL
- -$92.88
No position
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $61
- Potential payout
- $61
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $13.42
No position
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 65%
- Current value
- $39.65
- Potential payout
- $61
- Potential profit
- $21.35
- Multiplier
- 1.54x
- User PnL
- $30.5
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3
- Potential profit
- $3
- User PnL
- -$1.35
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the announcement on December 22?
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $527.31
Yes position
Will the US strike Somalia next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $454.39
Yes position
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during the announcement on December 22?
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $240
Yes position
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75%?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $196.54
Yes position
Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $157.88
No position
Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Jan 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.85
Yes position
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.94
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $48.4
Yes position
Will PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.4
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.21
Yes position
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Ends Aug 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $38.36
No position
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $30.72
Yes position
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Jan 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $24.86
Yes position
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.36
Yes position
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Multiplier
- 21.28x
- User PnL
- $23.57
Yes position
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.7
Yes position
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves make the NBA Playoffs?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.98
Yes position
Will the New Orleans Pelicans have the worst record in the NBA?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.23
Yes position
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.82
Yes position
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.36
Yes position
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- $11.28
Yes position
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.06
Yes position
Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.95
No position
Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the NBA Playoffs?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.86
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Weed rescheduled by March 31?No 86.3% 298 shares
- Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?No 18% 659 shares
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes 45% 62 shares
- Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes 53% 22 shares
- Will the Philadelphia Eagles be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?No 76% 124 shares
- Will Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?No 75% 140 shares
- Will the Philadelphia Eagles be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?No 79.5% 124 shares
- Will Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?No 78% 255 shares
- Will Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?No 78% 395 shares
- Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No 17% 95 shares
- Will Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31?No 74% 861 shares
- Will Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31?No 75% 861 shares