Polymarket Trader

USSHalf-Kelly

0x63b41e70c368573e1e14bd351ee80ce5a7f78614

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $39.23
Realized PnL: $310.86
Win rate: 75%
Open positions: 12
Closed positions: 12
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 4PM ET

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $317.06
Potential profit: $317.06
User PnL: -$20

Up position

XRP Up or Down on January 9?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $254.36
Potential profit: $254.36
User PnL: -$120

Up position

XRP Up or Down on January 8?

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $181.49
Potential profit: $181.49
User PnL: -$70

Yes position

Will the price of XRP be above $2.20 on January 9?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $138.22
Potential profit: $138.22
User PnL: -$19.35

No position

Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $39.23
Potential payout: $128.63
Potential profit: $89.4
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$62.46

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down on January 8?

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $102.04
Potential profit: $102.04
User PnL: -$50

Up position

XRP Up or Down - January 7, 6PM ET

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $95.46
Potential profit: $95.46
User PnL: -$50

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down on January 9?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $82.14
Potential profit: $82.14
User PnL: -$40

Up position

XRP Up or Down - January 8, 2PM ET

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $77.02
Potential profit: $77.02
User PnL: -$40

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 5PM ET

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.06
Potential profit: $76.06
User PnL: -$39.61

Up position

XRP Up or Down - January 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 6PM ET

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$20

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 2PM ET

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.11

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 6AM ET

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.7

Down position

XRP Up or Down - January 7, 9AM ET

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 4AM ET

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.54

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3PM ET

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.86

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down on January 8?

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34

No position

US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.69

Up position

XRP Up or Down - January 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.61

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on January 8?

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.79

Up position

XRP Up or Down - January 7, 9AM ET

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.7

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 10PM ET

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$1.94

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 10PM ET

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$26

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

No 79.1% 128.63 shares
Will the price of XRP be above $2.20 on January 9?

Yes 14% 138.22 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 10PM ET

Down 51% 50.98 shares
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

Up 40% 50 shares
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 2PM ET

Up 51.9% 77.02 shares
XRP Up or Down on January 9?

Up 44.7% 178.89 shares
Ethereum Up or Down on January 9?

Down 48.7% 82.14 shares
XRP Up or Down on January 9?

Up 53% 75.47 shares
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

Up 51% 19.3 shares
Ethereum Up or Down on January 8?

Down 99.9% 54.05 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 8?

Down 58% 13.79 shares
Ethereum Up or Down on January 8?

Down 37% 54.05 shares