No position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $2.73K
- Potential payout
- $3.43K
- Potential profit
- $702.69
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $1.7K
Polymarket Trader
big-short
0x63c652270a37e53a170303b6b264a2aa835743a5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $12.77K
- Realized PnL
- $48.66K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.38K
- Potential profit
- $2.38K
- User PnL
- -$1.83K
No position
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $1.91K
- Potential payout
- $2.01K
- Potential profit
- $100.57
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $485.75
No position
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $1.99K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $16.03
- User PnL
- $507.65
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Current value
- $1.51K
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $93.6
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $170.4
No position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $1.26K
- Potential payout
- $1.38K
- Potential profit
- $117.23
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $42.94
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $18.77
- Potential payout
- $1.21K
- Potential profit
- $1.19K
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$769.07
No position
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $949.98
- Potential payout
- $999.98
- Potential profit
- $50
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $60
No position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $871.93
- Potential payout
- $963.46
- Potential profit
- $91.53
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $69.45
No position
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $731.79
- Potential payout
- $736.58
- Potential profit
- $4.79
- User PnL
- $79.14
Yes position
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75%
- Current value
- $416.11
- Potential payout
- $554.82
- Potential profit
- $138.7
- Multiplier
- 1.33x
- User PnL
- $280.94
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $462.86
- Potential profit
- $462.86
- User PnL
- -$50.42
No position
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $232.7
- Potential payout
- $292.7
- Potential profit
- $60
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $10.24
No position
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $270.1
- Potential profit
- $270.1
- User PnL
- -$36.8
Yes position
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $7.87
- Potential payout
- $249.97
- Potential profit
- $242.1
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- -$108.61
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 76%
- Current value
- $91.2
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $28.8
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $42
No position
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2027- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $50.4
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $9.6
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $16.8
Yes position
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $7.09
- Potential payout
- $52.53
- Potential profit
- $45.44
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$3.76
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?
Ends Dec 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.9K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.07K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.27K
Yes position
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.24K
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.34K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.86K
Yes position
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.66K
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.61K
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.48K
No position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.34K
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33K
No position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.28K
No position
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.23K
Yes position
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22K
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.21K
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.18K
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.12K
No position
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 27-February 2?
Ends Feb 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $986.94
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $983.49
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $956.81
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $925.95
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 16-22?
Ends Dec 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $848.44
No position
Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $803.18
No position
Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $802.8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?No 99.6% 500 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes 39% 3,274.19 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Yes 71.9% 1,994.61 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes 50% 667.84 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Yes 71.8% 2,042.62 shares
- Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?No 5.7% 700 shares
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 89% 2,482.17 shares
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Yes 86% 15,000 shares
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 83.7% 51.32 shares
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Yes 82% 592.21 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No 93.3% 6.2 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 72% 157 shares