No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$75
Polymarket Trader
ikengard
0x6430f77e3dc31b0d77140138dc0d028001dad6e7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $469.3
- Realized PnL
- $6.36K
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.47K
- Potential profit
- $3.47K
- User PnL
- -$828.87
Yes position
Will the fight be won by submission?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.25K
- Potential profit
- $3.25K
- User PnL
- -$1.66K
Yes position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19%
- Current value
- $355.26
- Potential payout
- $1.87K
- Potential profit
- $1.51K
- Multiplier
- 5.26x
- User PnL
- -$936.96
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.36K
- Potential profit
- $1.36K
- User PnL
- -$112.09
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $543.99
- Potential profit
- $543.99
- User PnL
- -$31.01
Yes position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $66.28
- Potential payout
- $509.88
- Potential profit
- $443.6
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$90.03
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $46.5
- Potential payout
- $46.95
- Potential profit
- $0.45
- User PnL
- $4.26
No position
Will the fight be won by submission?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.25
- Potential payout
- $1.25
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.57
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Sean Strickland position
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.79K
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $843.39
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $698.19
No position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $655.66
Weibo Gaming position
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $443.59
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $144.37
Charles Oliveira position
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $141
Strickland position
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $139.8
DRX Challengers position
LoL: DRX Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $81.45
Yes position
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 23 above $137?
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.42
No position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72
No position
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of February?
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.22
No position
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.5
No position
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of February?
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.72
Yes position
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 23 above $134?
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.66
DRX Challengers position
LoL: DRX Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Playoffs
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.44
No position
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
Ends Mar 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.75
Yes position
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.73
No position
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
Ends Mar 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.67
No position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.51
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.26
Yes position
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
Ends Mar 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$12.95
Yes position
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$16.76
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 90% 6,146.95 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?No 5.7% 543.99 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?No 8.2% 1,359 shares
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes 51% 3,250 shares
- UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)Sean Strickland 19% 3,200 shares
- Will the fight be won by submission?No 49% 3,597 shares
- Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO?Yes 24% 2,587 shares
- Will the fight be won by submission?No 54.9% 2,287.25 shares
- Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO?Yes 24% 508 shares
- Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO?Yes 24% 491.77 shares
- Will the fight be won by submission?No 53% 800 shares
- Will the fight be won by submission?No 52.9% 500 shares