Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.13
- Potential payout
- $37.61
- Potential profit
- $37.48
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$2.88
Polymarket Trader
0x644f75f0b1a0175E09e1ef14861ceDa2DFe3252A-1778095717790
0x644f75f0b1a0175e09e1ef14861ceda2dfe3252a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $97.75
- Realized PnL
- $36.16
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 20
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Y
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $6.77
- Potential payout
- $12.2
- Potential profit
- $5.43
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $1.77
N
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $4.84
- Potential payout
- $10.87
- Potential profit
- $6.03
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.89
- Potential profit
- $6.89
- User PnL
- -$3.86
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $5.24
- Potential payout
- $6.85
- Potential profit
- $1.61
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $0.24
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $6.11
- Potential payout
- $6.11
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1.11
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $5.4
- Potential payout
- $6.1
- Potential profit
- $0.7
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.4
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $5.18
- Potential payout
- $6.02
- Potential profit
- $0.84
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $5.95
- Potential payout
- $5.95
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.95
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $5.03
- Potential payout
- $5.95
- Potential profit
- $0.92
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $5.62
- Potential payout
- $5.62
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.62
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $5.52
- Potential payout
- $5.59
- Potential profit
- $0.07
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.52
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $5.56
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $5.13
- Potential payout
- $5.49
- Potential profit
- $0.36
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.14
No position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $5.08
- Potential payout
- $5.49
- Potential profit
- $0.41
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $5.43
- Potential payout
- $5.43
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.43
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.7%
- Current value
- $5.07
- Potential payout
- $5.41
- Potential profit
- $0.34
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $5.32
- Potential payout
- $5.32
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.32
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $5.29
- Potential payout
- $5.29
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.31
No position
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $5.09
- Potential payout
- $5.09
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.8
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.73
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.61
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.06
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.03
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.83
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $1.75
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.59
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.55
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.49
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Multiplier
- 36.36x
- User PnL
- $1.43
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.34
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- $1.3
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.25
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2
Yes position
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.93
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.91
Yes position
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- $0.83
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $0.77
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.48
Yes position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- $0.39
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.34
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 16% 23.81 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 14.1% 27.47 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 74% 8.77 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 17.6% 27.47 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 57% 8.77 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes 67.1% 10.48 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 30% 13.16 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Yes 19.4% 12.82 shares
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?No 91% 5.49 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 58% 10.87 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 58% 11.36 shares
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Yes 10.7% 22.42 shares