Yes position
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.6%
- Current value
- $199.5
- Potential payout
- $5.54K
- Potential profit
- $5.34K
- Multiplier
- 27.78x
- User PnL
- -$62.7
Polymarket Trader
demosthenes474
0x64b460a36d9d160816e6ae799ff117a9cc1e055e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $273.73
- Realized PnL
- $3.14K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 21
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $42.34
- Potential payout
- $4.46K
- Potential profit
- $4.41K
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$21.78
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?
Ends May 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.72K
- Potential profit
- $2.72K
- User PnL
- -$14.49
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?
Ends May 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.48K
- Potential profit
- $2.48K
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.19K
- Potential profit
- $2.19K
- User PnL
- -$15.34
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?
Ends May 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.07K
- Potential profit
- $2.07K
- User PnL
- -$42.16
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.68K
- Potential profit
- $1.68K
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.33K
- Potential profit
- $1.33K
- User PnL
- -$6.28
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.32K
- Potential profit
- $1.32K
- User PnL
- -$6.6
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?
Ends May 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.16K
- Potential profit
- $1.16K
- User PnL
- -$21
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $988.4
- Potential profit
- $988.4
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Current value
- $28.02
- Potential payout
- $727.77
- Potential profit
- $699.75
- Multiplier
- 25.97x
- User PnL
- -$6.66
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $705.78
- Potential profit
- $705.78
- User PnL
- -$10.59
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $672.76
- Potential profit
- $672.76
- User PnL
- -$4.54
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $543.14
- Potential profit
- $543.14
- User PnL
- -$81.47
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $509.3
- Potential profit
- $509.3
- User PnL
- -$17.07
No position
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $437.42
- Potential profit
- $437.42
- User PnL
- -$96.56
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $380.99
- Potential profit
- $380.99
- User PnL
- -$7.41
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $251.8
- Potential profit
- $251.8
- User PnL
- -$4.03
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60.19
- Potential profit
- $60.19
- User PnL
- -$1.26
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $3.88
- Potential payout
- $4.48
- Potential profit
- $0.6
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.87
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
Ends Feb 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $956.71
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
Ends Feb 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $816.7
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $330.35
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $261.4
No position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
Ends Feb 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.97
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $116.66
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $90.14
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $73.58
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $48.36
No position
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.09
No position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.44
No position
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.15
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $26.14
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $25.24
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on February 2?
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.25
No position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.53
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.4
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.14
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.36
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78,000 on February 2?
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.63
No position
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.82
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?
Ends Feb 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.63
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.61
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?Yes 0.5% 1,319.6 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?Yes 1.5% 705.78 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?Yes 23% 157.41 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?Yes 4% 298.39 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?Yes 12.1% 300.27 shares
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?Yes 15% 543.14 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?Yes 13.1% 226.58 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?Yes 12.4% 329.46 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?Yes 15% 384.14 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?Yes 3.4% 300.27 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?Yes 15.8% 157.41 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?Yes 5% 226.58 shares