No position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $172.75
- Potential payout
- $200.87
- Potential profit
- $28.12
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $15.27
Polymarket Trader
ujelly
0x64b8f6cfcc770cfa03ab57f7ab802ed86e9f051b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $172.75
- Realized PnL
- -$39.26
- Win rate
- 31.8%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 22
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $478.86
Yes position
ChatGPT Outage by April 3?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.17
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.89
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.04
No position
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.75
No position
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $4.99
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
ChatGPT Outage by April 17?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.12
Yes position
ChatGPT Outage by May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.47
Yes position
ChatGPT Outage by April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.78
Yes position
ChatGPT Outage by May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.06
No position
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 68%
- Multiplier
- 1.47x
- User PnL
- -$2.47
No position
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$17.1
No position
ChatGPT Outage by May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$17.75
No position
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- -$25.5
Yes position
Critical Discord Incident by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$69.64
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$95.99
No position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$113.1
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$121.35
Yes position
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Multiplier
- 17.86x
- User PnL
- -$160.11
No position
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$210.11
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June?No 93% 0.16 shares
- Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June?No 86% 287.36 shares
- Will Claude go down 12+ times in June?Yes 5% 17.52 shares
- Will Claude go down 12+ times in June?Yes 5.1% 1,734.14 shares
- Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June?No 86.9% 287.53 shares
- Will Claude go down 12+ times in June?Yes 14.3% 1,751.67 shares
- Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?No 43.2% 95.16 shares
- Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?No 46.8% 26.83 shares
- Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?No 98.8% 1.18 shares
- Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?No 47.3% 42.86 shares
- Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?No 49.8% 52.05 shares
- Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?No 99.2% 116.85 shares