1walrus

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $3.91K
Potential payout: $3.99K
Potential profit: $79.85
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $48.2

Yes position

Will "Ghost" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.54K
Potential profit: $1.54K
User PnL: -$11.09

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $1.05K
User PnL: -$130.53

Yes position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?

Implied probability: 71.5%
Current value: $730.46
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $291.16
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: -$8.87

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $28.36
Potential payout: $886.21
Potential profit: $857.85
Multiplier: 31.25x
User PnL: -$42.54

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $850.63
Potential profit: $850.63
User PnL: -$89.1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $740.55
Potential profit: $740.55
User PnL: -$80.42

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $645.57
Potential payout: $653.08
Potential profit: $7.51
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $96.53

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $614.81
Potential profit: $614.81
User PnL: -$70.63

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $582.85
Potential profit: $582.85
User PnL: -$67.09

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $554.9
Potential profit: $554.9
User PnL: -$1.57

No position

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $550
Potential profit: $550
User PnL: -$6.75

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 46%
Current value: $249.89
Potential payout: $543.25
Potential profit: $293.35
Multiplier: 2.17x
User PnL: $19.88

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $26.83
Potential payout: $536.54
Potential profit: $509.71
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: -$35.02

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $531.88
Potential profit: $531.88
User PnL: -$245

Yes position

Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$17.5

Yes position

Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $497.5
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $499.99
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $476.48
Potential payout: $476.71
Potential profit: $0.24
User PnL: $52.58

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $258.68
Potential payout: $420.62
Potential profit: $161.94
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $66.27

Yes position

Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $19
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $381
Multiplier: 21.05x
User PnL: -$29

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $8.93
Potential payout: $388.25
Potential profit: $379.32
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: $3.31

No position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $357.67
Potential profit: $357.67
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.51K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $14.62K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.22K

No position

Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.76K

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.48K

Yes position

Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.58K

No position

Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.17K

No position

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.53K

No position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.5K

Yes position

Will the first eaglet hatch on April 11, 2026?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.26K

Yes position

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.15K

Yes position

Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.06K

No position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.03K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $902.01

Yes position

Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $856.16

No position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $700b on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $736.13

Yes position

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $721.69

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $701.96

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $672.43

No position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $625.76

Yes position

Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $607.58

Yes position

Will the first eaglet hatch on April 9, 2026?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $550.28

Yes position

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by May 31?