No position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.99
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.97
Polymarket Trader
lke
0x656688ab7939ce93493bc0d54f488344965a54c0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.11
- Realized PnL
- $42.08
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $3.1
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $16.9
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.05
No position
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.4
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.15
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.75
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.2
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.7
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.66
Yes position
Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $1.44
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.32
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25
No position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.9
No position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.8
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.7
No position
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.65
No position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.35
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Khamenei seen in public by March 7?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?No 4.9% 20 shares
- Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 13% 10 shares
- Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Yes 8% 5.12 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Yes 13% 10 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 60% 5 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?Yes 16% 10 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 65% 10 shares
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?No 3.7% 50 shares
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?No 3.7% 50 shares
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?Yes 31% 10 shares
- Khamenei seen in public by March 7?Yes 0.3% 20 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No 0.4% 40 shares