Polymarket Trader

ARCSOL

0x6574a8585aea10d8d33dc67f27a079edb0e0a6eb

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $11.17K
Realized PnL: $59.68
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 5
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $10.45K
Potential payout: $12.83K
Potential profit: $2.37K
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $3.78K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $558.26
Potential payout: $558.26
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $3.35

No position

Trump out as President by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $100.66
Potential payout: $101.11
Potential profit: $0.45
User PnL: $0.66

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $49.72
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $5.83
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $12.29
Potential payout: $22.97
Potential profit: $10.68
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: -$2.71

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.2

No position

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-10?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.62

Cardinals position

Spread: Packers (-7.5)

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.32

Colts position

Colts vs. Chargers

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.22

Yes position

Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.68

Yes position

Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.99

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.86

No position

Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.8

Golden Knights position

Flyers vs. Golden Knights

Ends Jan 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.69

Yes position

Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?

Ends Jun 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

Nuggets position

Pistons vs. Nuggets

Ends Jan 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.25

Yes position

Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.18

Pacers position

Clippers vs. Pacers

Ends Mar 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.94

Yes position

Will Magnus Carlsen win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?

Ends Dec 21, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.89

Yes position

Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76

No position

Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.6

76ers position

Spurs vs. 76ers

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.58

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.52

No position

Netanyahu out by 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.96

No position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.71

Celtics position

Celtics vs. Heat

Ends Feb 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.67

No position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 92.9%
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.58

No position

Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-19?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.52

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

No 99.4% 558.26 shares
Trump out as President by June 30?

No 98.9% 101.11 shares
Trump out as President before 2027?

No 90% 55.56 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Yes 65.3% 22.97 shares
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-10?

No 52% 9.62 shares
Jazz vs. Clippers

Jazz 15% 685 shares
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

No 96.1% 52.63 shares
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

No 95% 52.63 shares
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?

Yes 51% 40 shares
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

No 75% 122.28 shares
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

No 85% 122.28 shares
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Yes 98.3% 10.17 shares