No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $1.5K
- Potential payout
- $1.79K
- Potential profit
- $295.9
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $94.95
Polymarket Trader
Hechuan
0x659c970982ac1b464fc419694b10c052b22ca086
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.49K
- Realized PnL
- $1.72K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $1.55K
- Potential payout
- $1.71K
- Potential profit
- $162.3
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $110.41
Yes position
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.5%
- Current value
- $311.5
- Potential payout
- $958.46
- Potential profit
- $646.96
- Multiplier
- 3.08x
- User PnL
- $77.5
No position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $491.74
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $8.25
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $25.95
No position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $333.05
- Potential payout
- $376.33
- Potential profit
- $43.28
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $47.96
No position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $373.83
- Potential profit
- $373.83
- User PnL
- -$123
Yes position
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $273
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $27
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $43
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $287.7
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $12.3
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $6.7
No position
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $226.2
- Potential payout
- $260
- Potential profit
- $33.8
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $33.8
N
No position
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.4%
- Current value
- $193.34
- Potential payout
- $209.36
- Potential profit
- $16.02
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$6.24
N
No position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$196.6
No position
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $199.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- User PnL
- $11.5
No position
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $191
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $9
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $57.61
- Potential payout
- $171.98
- Potential profit
- $114.36
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- $5.37
No position
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $99.38
- Potential payout
- $167.03
- Potential profit
- $67.65
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- -$33.02
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $128.45
- Potential payout
- $163.64
- Potential profit
- $35.18
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$10.55
No position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $120
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $30
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
No position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $119.52
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $0.48
- User PnL
- $3.97
No position
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.4%
- Current value
- $107.22
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $12.78
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$4.41
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $15.34
- Potential payout
- $105.79
- Potential profit
- $90.45
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$24.66
Yes position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $10.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $89.5
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$22.5
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $92.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $7.5
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $5.5
No position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $99.2
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $0.8
- User PnL
- $4.6
No position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $91.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $8.5
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $3.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $199.56
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $169.98
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.77
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in October?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $132.46
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.93
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $97.84
No position
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.73
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.31
Yes position
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $66.33
Yes position
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.23
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.19
Yes position
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.83
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.21
No position
Will Trump's remarks not air?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.69
Yes position
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.6
No position
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.16
No position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.32
Yes position
Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.47
No position
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on November 12?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.93
Yes position
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?
Ends Nov 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.25
Yes position
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.7%
- Multiplier
- 9.39x
- User PnL
- $31.11
Y
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.97
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $27.91
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.58
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?No 91.7% 9.36 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?No 87% 100 shares
- Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday?No 94% 180 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No 99% 117.64 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes 99.9% 100 shares
- Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?No 81% 50 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No 23% 20 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No 98.3% 200 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?Yes 91.7% 12.92 shares
- Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?No 97% 17.65 shares
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes 61% 20 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No 90.6% 50 shares