Polymarket Trader

Thukydides

0x6640bd87f6e4b6e8d62457448bd1b3a4711a2202

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $148.89K
Realized PnL: $0
Win rate: Unavailable
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 0
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $28.18K
Potential payout: $31.14K
Potential profit: $2.96K
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $5.04K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $22.42K
Potential payout: $22.45K
Potential profit: $33.68
User PnL: $6.35K

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $17.15K
Potential payout: $19.59K
Potential profit: $2.45K
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $4.59K

No position

Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $19.13K
Potential payout: $19.27K
Potential profit: $144.56
User PnL: $1.37K

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $2.89K
Potential payout: $15.62K
Potential profit: $12.73K
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$1.57K

No position

Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $14.9K
Potential payout: $15.4K
Potential profit: $500.53
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $93.02

Yes position

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $89.62
Potential payout: $13.79K
Potential profit: $13.7K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$3.11K

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $11.2K
Potential payout: $13.25K
Potential profit: $2.05K
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $2.37K

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $4.72K
Potential payout: $12.25K
Potential profit: $7.54K
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: $1.77K

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $10.6K
Potential payout: $10.76K
Potential profit: $166.86
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.76K

Yes position

Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $5.26
Potential payout: $10.51K
Potential profit: $10.51K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.46K

Yes position

Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $3.58
Potential payout: $7.16K
Potential profit: $7.15K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.67K

Yes position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $3.96K
Potential payout: $7.01K
Potential profit: $3.05K
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$185.42

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $2.59K
Potential payout: $6.1K
Potential profit: $3.51K
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$49.49

No position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $5.49K
Potential payout: $5.61K
Potential profit: $114.91
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $835.66

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 24.7%
Current value: $985.99
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $3.01K
Multiplier: 4.06x
User PnL: -$541.97

Yes position

Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.94
Potential payout: $3.87K
Potential profit: $3.87K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$610.8

Yes position

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ends Sep 6, 2026

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $1.61K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $1.4K
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $416.75

Yes position

Will Maria Deery win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$89.41

Yes position

Will Simon Finkelstein win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$89.41

Yes position

Will James Thomas Bryer win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$89.41

Yes position

Will John Skipworth win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$89.41

No position

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 65.3%
Current value: $1.63K
Potential payout: $2.49K
Potential profit: $866.01
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $17.17

Yes position

Starmer out by October 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $1.34K
Potential payout: $1.85K
Potential profit: $509.23
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $46.29

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No closed positions returned for this trader.

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Starmer out by October 31, 2026?

Yes 70% 1,851.74 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 99.9% 4,799.97 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Yes 30% 3,086.41 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Yes 24% 4,767.94 shares
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

No 96.1% 100 shares
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

No 96.2% 11,638.73 shares
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

No 99.5% 10,441.46 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 98.9% 10,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 93.7% 999.99 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Yes 20% 4,398.08 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 55% 2,000 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 25.9% 11,081.97 shares