Yes position
Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $74.4
- Potential payout
- $6.2K
- Potential profit
- $6.13K
- Multiplier
- 83.33x
- User PnL
- -$10.99
Polymarket Trader
arlongur
0x6672acbf71322f19408b33aa5cfceb7a5c5ce975
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $514.06
- Realized PnL
- $820.88
- Win rate
- 90.9%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 11
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 62%
- Current value
- $179.8
- Potential payout
- $290
- Potential profit
- $110.2
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- -$3.2
Yes position
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $148.75
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $101.25
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $1.25
Yes position
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $61
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $139
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- -$43
Yes position
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.3%
- Current value
- $50.11
- Potential payout
- $131.01
- Potential profit
- $80.9
- Multiplier
- 2.61x
- User PnL
- $14.48
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $332
Yes position
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $150.19
No position
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $91.84
No position
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.44
Yes position
Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68
No position
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.17
No position
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.2
Yes position
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25
No position
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.23
Yes position
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20
Yes position
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$65.18
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Yes 59% 250 shares
- Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?No 37.2% 21.5 shares
- Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No 89.5% 75.52 shares
- Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No 92.8% 94.29 shares
- Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No 99.1% 430 shares
- Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No 93% 430 shares
- Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Yes 1.9% 4,470 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No 93% 341.69 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No 61.4% 162.81 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No 85.9% 178.88 shares