Polymarket Trader

rorybreaker

@lawsoonharry

0x68cf5b9bf66840cd7c29fd12235df8e7b6b779a4

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $136.58
Realized PnL: $212.06
Win rate: 58.3%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $43.75
Potential payout: $78.82
Potential profit: $35.08
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $3.75

Yes position

Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $71.98
Potential profit: $71.87
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$2.89

No position

Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $49.76
Potential payout: $70.59
Potential profit: $20.82
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: -$0.24

No position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $17.39
Potential payout: $30.25
Potential profit: $12.85
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.3
Potential profit: $28.3
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.27
Potential profit: $27.27
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $24.95
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$4.95

Yes position

Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $0.68
Potential payout: $21.19
Potential profit: $20.51
Multiplier: 31.25x
User PnL: -$4.32

Yes position

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $13.19
Potential payout: $17.24
Potential profit: $4.05
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $3.19

No position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.67
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will anyone say "Glizzy" during 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 47%
Current value: $6.71
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $7.57
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: $3.71

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.51
Potential profit: $13.51
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $4.94
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $7.56
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $7.69
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.48
Potential profit: $5.48
User PnL: -$4

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.68

Yes position

Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24

Yes position

Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.74

No position

Will Joey Chestnut Eat 70 or More Hot Dogs at Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest 2026(men's)

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.24

Yes position

Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.9

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.25

Yes position

Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.42

Yes position

Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.67

Yes position

Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.13

Yes position

Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.29

Yes position

Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.61

Yes position

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $2.65

Yes position

Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1

No position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.08

Yes position

Will another country strike Iran by March 7?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.16

Yes position

Will "Chalamet" be said 5+ times at the Oscars?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.26

Yes position

Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3

No position

Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3

No position

GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will "Sinners" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will anyone say "Glizzy" during 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?

Yes 21% 14.29 shares
Will Joey Chestnut Eat 70 or More Hot Dogs at Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest 2026(men's)

No 58.4% 34.24 shares
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

Yes 20% 25 shares
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?

Yes 4.2% 71.98 shares
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 23.6% 21.19 shares
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 58% 17.24 shares
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?

No 70.8% 70.59 shares
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

No 30% 16.67 shares
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

No 37% 13.51 shares
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

No 13% 7.69 shares
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?

Yes 68.5% 14.61 shares
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 26% 29.41 shares