Polymarket Trader

Clayton-Fox

0x69409bbe9fde5d71ff469b8cfaedcb107f94b1e3

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $22.48
Realized PnL: -$262.99
Win rate: 8.3%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 12
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Trump kiss by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $3.13
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.25K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.88

No position

Will Putin visit China by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.2K
User PnL: -$2.4

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $815.21
Potential profit: $815.21
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $767.86
Potential profit: $767.86
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $753.73
Potential profit: $753.73
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $596.43
Potential profit: $596.43
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $530.72
Potential profit: $530.72
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $476.2
Potential profit: $476.2
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $374
Potential profit: $374
User PnL: -$1

No position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $291.67
Potential profit: $291.67
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $276.21
Potential profit: $276.21
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $130.53
Potential profit: $130.53
User PnL: -$4

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 15.9%
Current value: $18.17
Potential payout: $114.29
Potential profit: $96.11
Multiplier: 6.29x
User PnL: $14.17

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$1

No position

Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $110.73
Potential profit: $110.73
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $1.06
Potential payout: $106.15
Potential profit: $105.09
Multiplier: 100.00x
User PnL: -$1.94

Yes position

Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.12
Potential payout: $59.54
Potential profit: $59.43
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$0.88

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $0.71

Yes position

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.29

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.64

Yes position

Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.67

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.79

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$236.22

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026?

No 3.5% 114.29 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026?

No 0.1% 1,000 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Yes 0.4% 250 shares
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 19, 2026?

Yes 2.8% 106.15 shares
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 19, 2026?

Yes 1.7% 59.54 shares
Will Donald Trump dance on June 15, 2026?

Yes 1.9% 53.22 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026?

No 3.1% 130.53 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Yes 0.3% 1,000 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Yes 0.5% 1,000 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Yes 0.5% 1,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.2% 500 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 0.2% 500 shares