Polymarket Trader

parsifal

0x6a5e991a877c9c3647b4b47c5b2c637e0e01c8c1

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $5.56K
Realized PnL: $4.07K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.95K
Potential profit: $9.95K
User PnL: -$374.9

Warriors position

Warriors vs. Rockets

Ends May 8, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.44K
Potential profit: $4.44K
User PnL: -$1.73K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.73K
Potential profit: $3.73K
User PnL: -$1.02K

No position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $2.42K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $585.07
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $46.85

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 58%
Current value: $1.36K
Potential payout: $2.35K
Potential profit: $988.04
Multiplier: 1.72x
User PnL: $613.07

Reds position

Cardinals vs. Reds

Ends May 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.22K
Potential profit: $2.22K
User PnL: -$1.2K

Yes position

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77%
Current value: $1.52K
Potential payout: $1.97K
Potential profit: $453.89
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: $221.11

Lakers position

Timberwolves vs. Lakers

Ends May 8, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $1.4K
User PnL: -$966

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92000 and $94000 on May 2?

Ends May 2, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $337.23
Potential profit: $337.23
User PnL: -$101.17

Yes position

Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $234.3
Potential profit: $234.3
User PnL: -$15.23

Yes position

Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $171.76
Potential payout: $172.97
Potential profit: $1.21
User PnL: $86.83

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1.2

Yes position

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $38.85
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $31.15
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $16.45

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$36.5

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $45.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $4.75
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $2.75

Yes position

Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$1.05

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1.25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.06K

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $550.3

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $474.83

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $173.2

No position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $139.56

No position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $121.77

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.64

No position

Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.49

Yes position

Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.79

Yes position

Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.82

No position

Will the government shutdown end November 10?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.3

Yes position

Will Trump say "Beautiful" 3+ times during his University of Alabama commencement speech?

Ends May 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.84

Yes position

Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.33

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.67

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.61

No position

Will there be another US government shutdown by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.55

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.55

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.33

Yes position

Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.02

No position

Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10?

Ends Nov 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.9

No position

Will Donald Trump say "Eight wars" during Syria President events on November 10?

Ends Nov 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.3

No position

Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

No position

Will Donald Trump say "Crown" during Syria President events on November 10?

Ends Nov 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2

Yes position

Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.45

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 99.9% 35.84 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 68.6% 2,914.9 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Yes 54% 408.22 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Yes 43% 1,005.95 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

No 99.5% 2,321.61 shares
Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Yes 87% 525.32 shares
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?

Yes 98.5% 309.23 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Yes 72% 2,146.95 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Yes 33.6% 615.76 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Yes 75% 3,500 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 48.2% 156.29 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Yes 26% 2,117.79 shares