Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $524.99
- Potential payout
- $599.99
- Potential profit
- $75
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $22
Polymarket Trader
12321
0x6a857fc1ca4d760385a23424057a6acb4dcd37c8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $806.14
- Realized PnL
- $1.39K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $15
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $185
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$9
Yes position
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17%
- Current value
- $25.5
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $124.5
- Multiplier
- 5.88x
- User PnL
- -$10.5
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $1.26
- Potential payout
- $104.99
- Potential profit
- $103.73
- Multiplier
- 83.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.26
Y
Yes position
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60?
Ends Nov 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.2%
- Current value
- $97.2
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $2.8
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.9
Yes position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $47.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $52.5
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.7
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.3
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- -$5.3
Yes position
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62%
- Current value
- $61.99
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $38
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- $7
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 32%
- Current value
- $31.99
- Potential payout
- $99.98
- Potential profit
- $67.99
- Multiplier
- 3.13x
- User PnL
- $6
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Lando Norris win the 2024 F1 season?
Ends Dec 29, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $183.47
Yes position
Brian Thompson Perp arrested by Friday?
Ends Dec 13, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $117.28
Yes position
India military action against Pakistan before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $109.8
Yes position
Yoon arrested by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $106
Yes position
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $87.8
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.89
Yes position
Trudeau resigns before February?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.59
Yes position
Vivek out as Head of DOGE before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $61.6
Yes position
Will Hamas release 20+ hostages in a single day by Nov 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.77
Yes position
Litecoin ETF approved in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.4
Yes position
Israel and Hamas ceasefire in 2023?
Ends Dec 31, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.45
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44
Yes position
Israeli forces enter Lebanon before November?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.1
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $37.2
No position
Israel military response against Iran today?
Ends Oct 1, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35
Yes position
Will Israel start flooding Hamas tunnels by December 15?
Ends Dec 15, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.45
Yes position
Israel military action against Iraq by Sunday?
Ends Oct 6, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $28.72
No position
Iran military response tonight?
Ends Aug 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28
Yes position
Avail airdrop in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $26.36
No position
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22
No position
Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference?
Ends Jul 27, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.98
No position
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.6
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.16
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Yes 2.4% 10 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 77% 100 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 65% 200 shares
- Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?Yes 6% 100 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 85% 100 shares
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Yes 54% 21.05 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes 24% 7.3 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No 78.2% 154.32 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No 79% 45.68 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21?No 94.2% 212.25 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21?No 86.3% 300 shares
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No 94.4% 200 shares