No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $1.84K
- Potential payout
- $2.03K
- Potential profit
- $192.85
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $822.15
Polymarket Trader
pensiNER44
0x6adcf0dfd76ea0a128425df6dbccc0caff3f0867
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.84K
- Realized PnL
- -$703.22
- Win rate
- 42.1%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 19
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $34.78
- Potential profit
- $34.78
- User PnL
- -$14
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.3%
- Current value
- $3.98
- Potential payout
- $20.69
- Potential profit
- $16.71
- Multiplier
- 5.19x
- User PnL
- -$2.02
Yes position
Will Davis Thompson be the first round leader at the 2025 PGA TOUR John Deere Classic?
Ends Jul 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.8%
- Current value
- $1.47
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $11.03
- Multiplier
- 8.51x
- User PnL
- -$0.53
Yes position
ICE shooter charged by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.71
- Potential profit
- $10.71
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 Chengdu Open?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.07
- Potential profit
- $10.07
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
US government shutdown in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.89
- Potential profit
- $8.89
- User PnL
- -$4
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump post 11-15 times this week?
Ends Aug 16, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $228.88
Yes position
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.26
Yes position
Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver?
Ends Jan 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.55
Yes position
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring?
Ends Apr 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.23
No position
MicroStrategy purchases >8000 BTC July 1-7?
Ends Jul 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41
Yes position
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?
Ends Dec 29, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3
Yes position
Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Democrat other than Biden wins the Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.23
No position
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship?
Ends Jan 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.25
Yes position
Fed rate cut by September 18?
Ends Sep 18, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$3.73
No position
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$4.49
Yes position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?
Ends Jun 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?
Ends Feb 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.03
Yes position
Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$11.51
Yes position
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$30.17
Yes position
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?
Ends Jan 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$61.5
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$812
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No 97.9% 612.87 shares
- Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 16% 12.5 shares
- ICE shooter charged by March 31?Yes 28% 10.71 shares
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 29% 20.69 shares
- Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 Chengdu Open?Yes 49.7% 10.07 shares
- Will Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?Yes 40.3% 34.78 shares
- US government shutdown in 2025?No 45% 8.89 shares
- Will Davis Thompson be the first round leader at the 2025 PGA TOUR John Deere Classic?Yes 20% 20 shares
- MicroStrategy purchases >8000 BTC July 1-7?No 74% 5.41 shares
- Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring?Yes 94% 37.23 shares
- Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Yes 54% 9.26 shares
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?Yes 0.1% 5,000 shares