AAA-Battery

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.49
Potential payout: $983.4
Potential profit: $982.91
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$87.58

Yes position

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.17
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $8.46
Potential payout: $197.1
Potential profit: $188.65
Multiplier: 23.31x
User PnL: -$6.54

Yes position

Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.58
Potential payout: $115.92
Potential profit: $115.34
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$0.42

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.06
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.06
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.94

Yes position

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $4.02
Potential payout: $107.14
Potential profit: $103.13
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: $1.02

No position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $54.04
Potential payout: $95.66
Potential profit: $41.62
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$0.96

Yes position

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.52
Potential payout: $95.24
Potential profit: $94.71
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$1.48

Yes position

Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.7
Potential payout: $82.35
Potential profit: $81.65
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.3

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.44
Potential payout: $68.2
Potential profit: $67.75
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$37.29

Yes position

Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.09
Potential payout: $62.14
Potential profit: $62.05
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$29.31

Yes position

Tim Walz in jail by December 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $3.11
Potential payout: $47.79
Potential profit: $44.68
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.36

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $31.16
Potential payout: $31.21
Potential profit: $0.05
User PnL: $1.16

Yes position

Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $30.44
Potential profit: $30.42
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.98

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $22.61
Potential payout: $22.89
Potential profit: $0.29
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.61

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 30?

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $20.51
Potential payout: $20.9
Potential profit: $0.39
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.51

No position

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $8.23
Potential payout: $20.83
Potential profit: $12.6
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: -$1.77

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $20.54
Potential payout: $20.65
Potential profit: $0.1
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 30?

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $20.08
Potential payout: $20.39
Potential profit: $0.31
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $11.63
Potential profit: $11.55
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$4.92

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $10.56
Potential payout: $10.7
Potential profit: $0.13
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.56

Yes position

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $9.41
Potential payout: $10.64
Potential profit: $1.22
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0.59

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $10.58
Potential payout: $10.61
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $0.58

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 30?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $5.26
Potential payout: $5.68
Potential profit: $0.43
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.26

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in January 2026?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $177.24

Yes position

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.97

No position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $52.02

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.68

Yes position

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.34

No position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.17

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.71

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.99

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 72%
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: $12.61

No position

Will Gemini win the okbet trading competition?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.57

Sam Houston Bearkats position

Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Oregon State

Ends Nov 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.5

No position

Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.24

Down position

Solana Up or Down - January 12, 4PM ET

Ends Jan 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.2

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.93

Up position

Solana Up or Down - January 14, 2PM ET

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.76

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass?

Ends Nov 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.29

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 6PM ET

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.27

No position

Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.13

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.65

Yes position

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?