Polymarket Trader

Nostradeadmau5

0x6c718e7d8635ee8efe77f30195bd36f5989914a4

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $167.25
Realized PnL: $1.5K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.13K
Potential profit: $2.13K
User PnL: -$55

No position

Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.06K
Potential profit: $1.06K
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $857.14
Potential profit: $857.14
User PnL: -$30

No position

Will the Government shutdown end by January 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $835.22
Potential profit: $835.22
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $625
Potential profit: $625
User PnL: -$30

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $598.59
Potential profit: $598.59
User PnL: -$19.99

No position

Will Trump meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $9.42
Potential payout: $299.06
Potential profit: $289.64
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$20.58

Yes position

Israel military action against Iran in July?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $229.36
Potential profit: $229.36
User PnL: -$92.1

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $208.33
Potential profit: $208.33
User PnL: -$25

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $205.71
Potential profit: $205.71
User PnL: -$60

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $188.87
Potential profit: $188.87
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Harry & Meghan divorce in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $187.5
Potential profit: $187.5
User PnL: -$30

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $168.33
Potential profit: $168.33
User PnL: -$30

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

US recession in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $164.29
Potential profit: $164.29
User PnL: -$72.79

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $157.83
Potential payout: $157.83
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $47.83

Yes position

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy booster?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $157.69
Potential profit: $157.69
User PnL: -$41

Yes position

Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?

Ends Jan 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$30

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $149.41
Potential profit: $149.41
User PnL: -$60

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $143.18
Potential profit: $143.18
User PnL: -$48.68

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $140.97
Potential profit: $140.97
User PnL: -$80

No position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $136.65
Potential profit: $136.65
User PnL: -$60

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $188.1

Yes position

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.24

Trump position

Who will win Latino men?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.91

No position

US kicks trans members out of military before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.16

No position

Ethereum all time high by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.98

Yes position

Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.11

Yes position

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.46

No position

Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.78

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.41

No position

SpaceX Starship launch by Nov 18?

Ends Nov 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.4

Yes position

Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.33

No position

Will DOGE audit Fort Knox before May?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.05

Yes position

Fear & Greed Index says "Extreme Fear" on Friday?

Ends Apr 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.89

No position

Will Trump remove FBI director Christopher Wray?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.84

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.86

No position

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.56

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.7

No position

U.S. withdraws from Syria in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.61

Yes position

Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.67

No position

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.47

Yes position

US bank failure before March?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.52

No position

Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.36

Yes position

Will Trump nominate RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.5

No position

Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.2

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?

$3,000 69% 57.97 shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

No 80% 50 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

No 71% 56.34 shares
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?

No 64% 62.5 shares
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?

No 93% 43.01 shares
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on April 30?

No 89.6% 33.49 shares
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?

No 63% 61.8 shares
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

No 80% 50 shares
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes 55% 90.91 shares
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?

Yes 21% 238.1 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

No 88% 56.82 shares
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

No 83% 60.24 shares