No position
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 32%
- Current value
- $32
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $68
- Multiplier
- 3.13x
- User PnL
- $19.5
Polymarket Trader
Aiden2006
0x6cb0f2bb3bfc941f9eca0d0f21c7aa6aea798fc5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $57.42
- Realized PnL
- $608.66
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$2.8
No position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$4
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $13.43
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $1.57
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $5.48
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $15
- User PnL
- -$5.1
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $11.99
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $5.75
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
DeepSeek R2 released before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $219.8
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $137.6
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.93
Yes position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $60
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.98
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.4
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.8
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.4
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.4
No position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.36
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.19
Yes position
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.21
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.78
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.8
Yes position
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.66
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.44
Yes position
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.44
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.9
Yes position
DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?
Ends Mar 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.95
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.52
Yes position
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.56
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Starmer out by August 31, 2026?No 7% 40 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?No 16% 25 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 34% 15 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 53% 15 shares
- Starmer out by May 31, 2026?No 47% 12 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 52% 12 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Yes 20% 15.99 shares
- Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?Yes 14% 53.92 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?No 61% 8 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?No 80% 8 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?No 48% 30 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?No 98.6% 25 shares