Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $173.99
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.03K
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$32.4
Polymarket Trader
kostafun
0x6d50d1402b75af546273297aa6dd2904bd211f5d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $652.33
- Realized PnL
- $2.87K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $71.5
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $1.03K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$128.5
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $999.99
- User PnL
- -$464.6
Yes position
Will three people dissent the June Fed decision?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $700
- Potential profit
- $700
- User PnL
- -$21
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $5.79
- Potential payout
- $609.52
- Potential profit
- $603.73
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- $2.74
Yes position
Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 34%
- Current value
- $191.67
- Potential payout
- $563.73
- Potential profit
- $372.06
- Multiplier
- 2.94x
- User PnL
- -$241.84
Yes position
Will four or more people dissent the June Fed decision?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $499.99
- User PnL
- -$8.5
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $400
- User PnL
- -$214
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $11.04
- Potential payout
- $345.07
- Potential profit
- $334.02
- Multiplier
- 31.25x
- User PnL
- $4.69
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Current value
- $5.55
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $294.45
- Multiplier
- 54.05x
- User PnL
- -$6.45
No position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $139.27
- Potential payout
- $299.51
- Potential profit
- $160.24
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- $20.07
Yes position
Will Meta have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $285.62
- Potential profit
- $285.62
- User PnL
- -$3.01
Yes position
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $10.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $189.1
- Multiplier
- 18.35x
- User PnL
- -$1.1
Yes position
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $13
- Potential payout
- $199.99
- Potential profit
- $186.99
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$35
Yes position
Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $9.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $90.5
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.6%
- Current value
- $3.49
- Potential payout
- $96.82
- Potential profit
- $93.33
- Multiplier
- 27.78x
- User PnL
- -$0.39
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $14.08
- Potential payout
- $85.34
- Potential profit
- $71.26
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$12.52
Yes position
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $61.1
- Potential profit
- $61.1
- User PnL
- -$10.26
Yes position
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $2.55
- Potential payout
- $15.43
- Potential profit
- $12.88
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
Will two people dissent the June Fed decision?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.49
- Potential profit
- $12.49
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.85
- Potential profit
- $6.85
- User PnL
- -$5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $784.01
Yes position
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $432.45
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $279.79
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $190.8
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $161.1
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.99
Yes position
Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.15
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104
Yes position
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 65%
- Multiplier
- 1.54x
- User PnL
- $90.19
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.7
No position
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 27, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.69
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.2
Yes position
Will Israel or the US target Tehran?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.8
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.4
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $37.5
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $34.54
No position
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $26.7
No position
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 24, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.9
No position
Will 6–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.96
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.5
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21
Yes position
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.62
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ETUp 73% 6.85 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 17.7% 100 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 16.5% 399.99 shares
- Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?Yes 60% 111 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 76.5% 100 shares
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No 40% 200 shares
- Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?Yes 72% 50 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 17% 199.99 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 17% 399.99 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?No 65% 50 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes 0.5% 2,500 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes 0.5% 5,000 shares