No position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $83.39K
- Potential payout
- $90.19K
- Potential profit
- $6.81K
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $8.91K
Polymarket Trader
MEPP
@MEPPonPM
0x6d9fc316c3b8377060a44b852ba664adbfd59790
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $436.48K
- Realized PnL
- $586.11K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 50
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.9%
- Current value
- $5.58K
- Potential payout
- $35.11K
- Potential profit
- $29.53K
- Multiplier
- 6.29x
- User PnL
- $1.6K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $32.71K
- Potential payout
- $32.85K
- Potential profit
- $147.84
- User PnL
- $9.99K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $29.76K
- Potential payout
- $29.77K
- Potential profit
- $14.89
- User PnL
- $21.47K
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $25K
- Potential payout
- $27.62K
- Potential profit
- $2.62K
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $2.62K
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $23.92K
- Potential payout
- $25.85K
- Potential profit
- $1.94K
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $4.26K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $22.63K
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $2.38K
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $6.53K
No position
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $23.57K
- Potential payout
- $24.68K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $3.58K
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $19.84K
- Potential payout
- $21K
- Potential profit
- $1.15K
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $2.03K
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $13.83K
- Potential payout
- $15.98K
- Potential profit
- $2.16K
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.77K
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $11.48K
- Potential payout
- $15.84K
- Potential profit
- $4.36K
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $1.43K
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.78K
- Potential profit
- $14.78K
- User PnL
- -$5.37K
No position
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.4%
- Current value
- $11.25K
- Potential payout
- $13.02K
- Potential profit
- $1.77K
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.88K
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71%
- Current value
- $8.1K
- Potential payout
- $11.41K
- Potential profit
- $3.31K
- Multiplier
- 1.41x
- User PnL
- $2.44K
No position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $10.35K
- Potential payout
- $11.25K
- Potential profit
- $899.99
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.2K
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.86K
- Potential profit
- $10.86K
- User PnL
- -$901.61
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $7.41K
- Potential payout
- $10.82K
- Potential profit
- $3.41K
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- $2.36K
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.81K
- Potential profit
- $10.81K
- User PnL
- -$3K
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.59K
- Potential profit
- $10.59K
- User PnL
- -$3.98K
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.22K
- Potential profit
- $10.22K
- User PnL
- -$3.79K
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.21K
- Potential profit
- $10.21K
- User PnL
- -$6.4K
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $9.88K
- Potential payout
- $9.93K
- Potential profit
- $54.64
- User PnL
- $2.33K
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $4.49K
- Potential payout
- $9.86K
- Potential profit
- $5.38K
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- $887.59
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $8.32K
- Potential payout
- $9.85K
- Potential profit
- $1.53K
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $1.72K
No position
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $8.66K
- Potential payout
- $8.75K
- Potential profit
- $83.1
- User PnL
- $906.43
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.7%
- Current value
- $5.69K
- Potential payout
- $7.33K
- Potential profit
- $1.64K
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $3.1K
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.6%
- Current value
- $6.12K
- Potential payout
- $7.32K
- Potential profit
- $1.2K
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $1.51K
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.29K
- Potential profit
- $7.29K
- User PnL
- -$6.67K
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $237.84
- Potential payout
- $6.89K
- Potential profit
- $6.66K
- Multiplier
- 28.99x
- User PnL
- -$2.59K
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $6.36K
- Potential payout
- $6.87K
- Potential profit
- $515.48
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.39K
No position
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $6.44K
- Potential payout
- $6.78K
- Potential profit
- $339.07
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $319.2
No position
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77%
- Current value
- $5.01K
- Potential payout
- $6.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- -$195
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89%
- Current value
- $5.7K
- Potential payout
- $6.4K
- Potential profit
- $704.01
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $1.68K
No position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $5.33K
- Potential payout
- $6.27K
- Potential profit
- $940.56
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $250.82
No position
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $4.54K
- Potential payout
- $5.15K
- Potential profit
- $618.51
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $119.37
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $4.43K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $575
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $175
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $4.43K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $575
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $1.23K
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$300
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.59K
- Potential profit
- $4.59K
- User PnL
- -$2.27K
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.19K
- Potential profit
- $4.19K
- User PnL
- -$3.65K
No position
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $3.46K
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $540
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $980
N
No position
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $3.8K
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $200
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $400
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.88K
- Potential profit
- $3.88K
- User PnL
- -$2.24K
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.1%
- Current value
- $390.5
- Potential payout
- $3.87K
- Potential profit
- $3.48K
- Multiplier
- 9.90x
- User PnL
- -$1.46K
No position
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027?
Ends Jun 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $3.44K
- Potential payout
- $3.5K
- Potential profit
- $64.77
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $740.46
No position
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.1%
- Current value
- $2.76K
- Potential payout
- $3.13K
- Potential profit
- $372.43
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $448.97
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $2.67K
- Potential payout
- $3.1K
- Potential profit
- $434.6
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $529.9
No position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $2.56K
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $435
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $615
No position
Kurds declare independence from Iran?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $2.97K
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $33
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $927
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.72K
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.98K
No position
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.56K
No position
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.37K
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.1K
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.81K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.76K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.64K
Yes position
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.03K
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.8K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.74K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.9K
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.7K
Yes position
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.43K
Yes position
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.33K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.88K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.6K
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.15K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.15K
Yes position
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.89K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.84K
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.81K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.66K
Yes position
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.66K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.54K
Yes position
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?
Ends Oct 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.48K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.04K
Yes position
US-China trade deal before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.39K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.32K
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.31K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.76K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.22K
No position
Trump exits Iran nuclear negotiations before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.19K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7K
No position
Iran Nuke in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.98K
Yes position
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.98K
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.94K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15?
Ends Sep 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.72K
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.39K
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.28K
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?
Ends Oct 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.1K
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.06K
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.99K
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.98K
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.98K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.8K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.8K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.71K
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.65K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 10.7% 50 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 10.8% 5,626.55 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 11.1% 10,182.43 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?Yes 11.3% 1,528.1 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 12.9% 34,919.84 shares
- Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?No 35% 10 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 73% 1,581.85 shares
- Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 70% 72.7 shares
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 81% 315 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 33% 211.79 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?Yes 47.9% 3,323.08 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?Yes 49.7% 322.99 shares