JohnBankruptcy

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $534.55
Potential profit: $534.55
User PnL: -$15.3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $184.38
Potential profit: $184.38
User PnL: -$7

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $130
User PnL: -$1.3

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $124.06
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.06

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $121.43
Potential profit: $121.43
User PnL: -$4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $109.68
Potential profit: $109.68
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.9
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.1
Multiplier: 111.11x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $5.58
Potential payout: $96.16
Potential profit: $90.58
Multiplier: 17.24x
User PnL: $0.57

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $9.38
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $53.13
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$0.63

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40.38
Potential profit: $40.38
User PnL: -$4

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $39.09
Potential profit: $39.09
User PnL: -$2.39

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $1.77
Potential payout: $37.74
Potential profit: $35.96
Multiplier: 21.28x
User PnL: -$0.23

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $1.44
Potential payout: $28.05
Potential profit: $26.61
Multiplier: 19.42x
User PnL: -$1.56

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.35
Potential profit: $25.35
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $3.81
Potential payout: $23.08
Potential profit: $19.27
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $0.81

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $2.53
Potential payout: $18.75
Potential profit: $16.22
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$0.47

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 54%
Current value: $6.11
Potential payout: $11.32
Potential profit: $5.21
Multiplier: 1.85x
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $0.9
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.1
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $0.8
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.2
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$0.2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9
Potential profit: $9
User PnL: -$0.99

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $2.8
Potential payout: $8.11
Potential profit: $5.31
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$0.2

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $2.92
Potential payout: $5.45
Potential profit: $2.54
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: -$0.08

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Maduro out by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.59K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.54K

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.45K

No position

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.12K

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.06K

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $928.82

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 7?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $883.84

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $854.54

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $639.43

No position

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $589.04

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

Ends Mar 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $544.1

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $525.79

Yes position

Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $520.29

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $498.36

No position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $447.61

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $408.56

Yes position

Maduro out by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $331.02

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: January

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $299.08

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $298.44

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $250.6

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $249.32

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $247.85

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?