Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 13.8%
- Current value
- $137.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $862.5
- Multiplier
- 7.27x
- User PnL
- $77.5
Polymarket Trader
4546318851
0x6dc1de9a25d85255b5647f6690babfdb347dd7ac
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.29K
- Realized PnL
- $3.21K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 23
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.6%
- Current value
- $195.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $804.5
- Multiplier
- 5.12x
- User PnL
- -$84.5
Yes position
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $8.5
- Potential payout
- $999.98
- Potential profit
- $991.48
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$6.5
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $24.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $475.25
- Multiplier
- 20.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.75
No position
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $207.75
- Potential payout
- $361.3
- Potential profit
- $153.55
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $171.62
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.4%
- Current value
- $56.88
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $143.12
- Multiplier
- 3.52x
- User PnL
- $21.08
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 10%
- Current value
- $19.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $180.1
- Multiplier
- 10.05x
- User PnL
- -$2.9
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.4%
- Current value
- $38.7
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $161.3
- Multiplier
- 5.17x
- User PnL
- $21.9
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $14.08
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $185.92
- Multiplier
- 14.20x
- User PnL
- -$3.72
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.3%
- Current value
- $22.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $177.5
- Multiplier
- 8.89x
- User PnL
- -$11.9
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $11.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $188.1
- Multiplier
- 16.81x
- User PnL
- -$5.7
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $199.5
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$8.7
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $199.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $0.1
- User PnL
- $79.9
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $79.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $20.5
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $5.5
France position
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $88.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $11.5
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.25
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.75
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$26.45
Yes position
US congress stock trading ban before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $12.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $87.5
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$7.5
Yes position
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $5.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $94.5
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$35.5
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $62.8
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $17.2
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $10.8
Yes position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $5.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $44.75
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$6.75
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $49.88
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- User PnL
- $13.88
No position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.4%
- Current value
- $47.68
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $2.33
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $7.47
Yes position
Will BP be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $0.12
- Potential payout
- $1.09
- Potential profit
- $0.96
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- $0.04
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will MicroStrategy hold 400k+ BTC before 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $459.58
No position
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $404.58
No position
Honda and Nissan merger announced before February?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $359.86
Yes position
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $218.96
Yes position
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $136.96
No position
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $121.86
Yes position
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $119.65
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.15
Yes position
Will the U.S. take a stake in Intel by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.11
Yes position
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.18
Yes position
Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.2
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?
Ends Jun 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.75
Yes position
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90
Yes position
Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in September?
Ends Oct 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.83
No position
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment?
Ends Dec 10, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.5
No position
Will MicroStrategy hold 630k+ BTC by August 31?
Ends Sep 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $82.83
Yes position
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.15
Yes position
Will more than 10 Senate Democrats vote in favor of the next government funding bill?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.1
No position
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.5
Yes position
Megaquake in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64
Yes position
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.5
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?
Ends May 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.5
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?No 10% 895.29 shares
- France vs. Sweden: Team to AdvanceFrance 89% 100 shares
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to AdvanceGermany 86% 50 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 4.6% 200 shares
- Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?74.3% 6.73 shares
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?No 7.9% 150 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?No 72% 50 shares
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 8.4% 200 shares
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?Yes 93.9% 200 shares
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?Yes 31.3% 20 shares
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No 80% 200 shares
- Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?Yes 93% 150 shares