Polymarket Trader

molho-gorgonzola

0x6dfc03537f81a1f335a8333cc86652a9e18b3b82

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $23.26
Realized PnL: $358.61
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 18
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $3.95
Potential payout: $1.13K
Potential profit: $1.12K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$2.46

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 22.8%
Current value: $15.94
Potential payout: $70.05
Potential profit: $54.11
Multiplier: 4.40x
User PnL: $0.94

Yes position

Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.3%
Current value: $3.09
Potential payout: $30.04
Potential profit: $26.94
Multiplier: 9.71x
User PnL: $1.59

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $24.24
Potential profit: $24.24
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $0.28
Potential payout: $22.73
Potential profit: $22.44
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$0.72

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.62
Potential profit: $9.62
User PnL: -$3

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.46
Potential profit: $9.46
User PnL: -$3

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.18
Potential profit: $8.18
User PnL: -$2

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $7.69
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.85
Potential profit: $3.85
User PnL: -$2

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.7
Potential profit: $3.7
User PnL: -$1

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.13
Potential profit: $3.13
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.94
Potential profit: $2.94
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.9
Potential profit: $2.9
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.33
Potential profit: $2.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during King Charles visit?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2
Potential profit: $2
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Trump say "Normandy" during King Charles visit?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.2
Potential profit: $1.2
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $199.34

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.68

No position

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.52

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.38

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.04

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.92

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.56

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.23

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?

Ends Jan 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.71

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.35

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.31

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.08

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?

Ends Feb 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.57

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.42

Yes position

Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.23

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.96

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.7

Yes position

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.58

No position

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.44

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.44

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.37

No position

Will Trump say "Ballroom" during King Charles visit?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.17

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Yes 4.8% 90.08 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Yes 83% 211.31 shares
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 67% 457.71 shares
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 62% 173.56 shares
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

No 82% 134.51 shares
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

No 66% 29.95 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Yes 55% 37.08 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Yes 62% 31.82 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Yes 55.1% 37.07 shares
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

No 59% 9.81 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

No 95.2% 6.12 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Yes 72% 74.16 shares