Polymarket Trader

Arkenibon

0x6e2ba3fe3b0750d6935fc7fdf80d25298c72ce12

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $4.13
Realized PnL: $4.12
Win rate: 57.1%
Open positions: 23
Closed positions: 14
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

2 Trump vs. Harris debates before election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $74.07
Potential profit: $74.07
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

TikTok banned in the US in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $51.72
Potential profit: $51.72
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $47.57
Potential profit: $47.57
User PnL: -$9.99

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.06
Potential profit: $25.06
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Mira Murati join Anthropic?

Ends Oct 31, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven in Q4 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.19
Potential profit: $19.19
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.67
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November 12?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.66
Potential profit: $12.66
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.22
Potential profit: $12.22
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Evidence released that Kamala worked at McDonald's?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $11.11
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 33.4%
Current value: $2.02
Potential payout: $6.06
Potential profit: $4.04
Multiplier: 3.00x
User PnL: $1.02

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1

No position

RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.33
Potential profit: $3.33
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.94
Potential profit: $2.94
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.38
Potential profit: $2.38
User PnL: -$1

No position

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $2.11
Potential payout: $2.11
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.11

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 9?

Ends Nov 5, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.04
Potential profit: $2.04
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.75
Potential profit: $1.75
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.56
Potential profit: $1.56
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.54
Potential profit: $1.54
User PnL: -$1

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.28
Potential profit: $1.28
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.45

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.59

Yes position

Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election?

Ends Oct 20, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.55

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.32

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.12

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the SPD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will the SPD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.73

Yes position

Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20?

Ends Dec 20, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 16.5% 6.06 shares
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

No 82% 1.22 shares
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?

No 57% 1.75 shares
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30?

No 34% 2.94 shares
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?

No 15% 6.67 shares
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?

Yes 95.1% 1.05 shares
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?

No 18% 5.56 shares
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Yes 65% 1.54 shares
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Yes 94% 1.06 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 78% 1.28 shares
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

No 99.9% 2.32 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

No 20% 5 shares