No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $1.99K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- $84
Polymarket Trader
notleurop
0x6e9ec974105f9a43ee35a4d1618065bc3f8f02b7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $8.48K
- Realized PnL
- $2.48K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $962.47
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $137.5
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $148.5
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $996.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $3.5
- User PnL
- $25.5
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $476.25
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $23.75
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $53.75
No position
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Current value
- $389.2
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $10.8
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $394.59
- Potential payout
- $399.99
- Potential profit
- $5.4
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $38.85
No position
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $376.31
- Potential payout
- $399.06
- Potential profit
- $22.75
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$3.99
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $297.76
- Potential payout
- $300.01
- Potential profit
- $2.25
- User PnL
- $5.25
No position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $297.6
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $2.4
- User PnL
- $42.6
No position
Trump goes to space in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Current value
- $291.75
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $8.25
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $3.28
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $298.33
- Potential payout
- $299.98
- Potential profit
- $1.65
- User PnL
- $48.85
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $246
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $4
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $11
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $173
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $27
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $17
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $196.3
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $3.7
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $9.8
No position
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $181
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $19
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $27
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Current value
- $188.3
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $11.7
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $14.3
No position
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $160.12
- Potential payout
- $161.01
- Potential profit
- $0.89
- User PnL
- $2.5
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $151.56
- Potential payout
- $152.86
- Potential profit
- $1.3
- User PnL
- $4.2
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.1%
- Current value
- $139.58
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $10.43
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $23.17
No position
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $149.83
- Potential payout
- $149.98
- Potential profit
- $0.15
- User PnL
- $20.85
No position
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $113.28
- Potential payout
- $113.62
- Potential profit
- $0.34
- User PnL
- $1.36
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.95
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$37.95
Yes position
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-11?
Ends Mar 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$9.9
No position
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $7.27
- Potential payout
- $9.09
- Potential profit
- $1.82
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $1.18
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-12?
Ends Mar 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $479.02
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $234.44
No position
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $208.29
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $204.33
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $132.27
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $131.94
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.6
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.76
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.12
No position
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.44
No position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58
No position
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.18
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.73
No position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $52.45
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.23
No position
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.6
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.5
No position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $45.6
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.28
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.54
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 22% 300 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 27% 100 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 38% 100 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 41% 11.05 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?No 94.9% 200 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?Yes 93% 200 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 93% 200 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 10.2% 296.26 shares
- Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?No 97.3% 15 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 9.1% 361.37 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Yes 4.5% 300 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Yes 10.6% 250 shares