Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $131.18
- Potential payout
- $2.65K
- Potential profit
- $2.52K
- Multiplier
- 20.20x
- User PnL
- -$14.57
Polymarket Trader
Artvanderlee
0x6f460c9452f31b3afb3849d0d6ae58b6c1bc2cd1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.18K
- Realized PnL
- $4.72K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $1.8K
- Potential payout
- $1.89K
- Potential profit
- $94.53
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $82.35
No position
Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $703.87
- Potential payout
- $752.8
- Potential profit
- $48.93
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $53.11
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $659.25
- Potential payout
- $672.36
- Potential profit
- $13.11
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $95.67
No position
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $579.48
- Potential payout
- $609.98
- Potential profit
- $30.5
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $46.1
Yes position
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.4%
- Current value
- $36.54
- Potential payout
- $493.75
- Potential profit
- $457.22
- Multiplier
- 13.51x
- User PnL
- -$82.81
Yes position
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $291.87
- Potential payout
- $305.78
- Potential profit
- $13.91
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $11.69
No position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60%
- Current value
- $111.86
- Potential payout
- $186.43
- Potential profit
- $74.57
- Multiplier
- 1.67x
- User PnL
- -$20.44
Yes position
SCOTUS rules in favor of Monsanto?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $93.32
- Potential payout
- $181.2
- Potential profit
- $87.88
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- -$55.86
No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $153.05
- Potential payout
- $174.91
- Potential profit
- $21.86
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $3.13
Yes position
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $68.25
- Potential payout
- $130
- Potential profit
- $61.75
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- -$3.15
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $15.59
- Potential payout
- $124.69
- Potential profit
- $109.1
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$25.61
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $111
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $9
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.8
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $4.16
- Potential payout
- $117.5
- Potential profit
- $113.34
- Multiplier
- 28.25x
- User PnL
- -$29.89
No position
Trump pays Jan 6 rioter?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $105.45
- Potential payout
- $112.78
- Potential profit
- $7.33
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $15.22
No position
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $4.83
- Potential payout
- $98.65
- Potential profit
- $93.82
- Multiplier
- 20.41x
- User PnL
- -$2.46
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $74.38
- Potential payout
- $85
- Potential profit
- $10.63
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $14.88
Yes position
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $11.6
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $68.4
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$1.2
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $63.73
- Potential payout
- $69.65
- Potential profit
- $5.92
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$2.44
Yes position
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
Ends Jan 21, 2027- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $46.7
- Potential payout
- $61.05
- Potential profit
- $14.35
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $1.26
Yes position
Will Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
Ends Jan 21, 2027- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $40.81
- Potential payout
- $57.08
- Potential profit
- $16.27
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $9.68
Yes position
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $6.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $43.25
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$3.78
Yes position
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $36.75
- Potential payout
- $48.68
- Potential profit
- $11.93
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $1.44
No position
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.7%
- Current value
- $35.95
- Potential payout
- $40.1
- Potential profit
- $4.15
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.66K
No position
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $364.71
No position
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $285.87
No position
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $224.33
No position
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $205.02
No position
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $180.83
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $145.79
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.84
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.49
Yes position
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126.71
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $125.4
Yes position
Will the Social Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $122.22
No position
Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $102.99
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $101.92
No position
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.93
No position
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.23
No position
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment?
Ends Dec 10, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.21
No position
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.04
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80
No position
Will the Liberal Reform Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.57
No position
Astronomer Divorce Parlay
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.18
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.54
No position
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.74
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.95
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?No 95% 150 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?Yes 4.8% 888.43 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?No 5.1% 270.01 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 13% 679.97 shares
- Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 0.2% 150 shares
- Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?No 7.7% 48.65 shares
- Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?No 88% 130 shares
- Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?No 87% 30 shares
- Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?No 87% 8.19 shares
- Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?Yes 99.5% 130.55 shares
- Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?Yes 19% 71.91 shares
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more?Yes 99.9% 119.99 shares