No position
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $19.57
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.43
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $9.57
Polymarket Trader
0x6fc4...a25d
0x6fc41c2dcfd2147130582b7e300efa1e1f13a25d
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $38.44
- Realized PnL
- -$10.28
- Win rate
- 42.9%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 14
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $0.43
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.57
- Multiplier
- 46.73x
- User PnL
- -$9.57
Yes position
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $3.42
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $8.58
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- $0.78
Yes position
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $0.74
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $6.27
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.53
Yes position
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.1%
- Current value
- $4.74
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $1.26
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$0.55
Yes position
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $0.78
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $5.22
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$0.36
Yes position
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $0.87
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $5.13
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$1.11
No position
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $4.25
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.75
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73%
- Current value
- $3.65
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.35
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- $1.15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.45
Yes position
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- $0.22
No position
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will Ian Noel Smyth win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Ian Noel Smyth win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
No position
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
No position
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
Yes position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 27%
- Multiplier
- 3.70x
- User PnL
- -$0.57
No position
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$10.08
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?No 91% 7 shares
- Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?No 86% 5 shares
- Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?Yes 19% 6 shares
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No 50.1% 5 shares
- Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?No 72% 5 shares
- Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?Yes 88.2% 6 shares
- Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?No 94.6% 5 shares
- Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes 33% 6 shares
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No 41.5% 7 shares
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes 58.6% 8 shares
- Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?Yes 20% 11 shares
- Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?No 88.6% 17 shares