Polymarket Trader

ManuelLamb8804

0x708a29197b7205945091d3e8d9260d5ad6c968b9

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $283.42
Realized PnL: $908.8
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the US strike Iran next?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $887
Potential profit: $887
User PnL: -$283.84

Yes position

Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 5 be between 2,100,000 and 2,300,000?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $838
Potential profit: $838
User PnL: -$310.06

Yes position

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 20, 2026?

Ends Feb 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $746.99
Potential profit: $746.99
User PnL: -$283.86

Over position

New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $253.94
Potential payout: $627
Potential profit: $373.07
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $184.97

Yes position

Will "Manchild - Sabrina Carpenter" win Best Music Video at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $494
Potential profit: $494
User PnL: -$291.46

No position

Will MrBeast say "Challenge" during his next YouTube video?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $460
Potential profit: $460
User PnL: -$87.4

Yes position

Will Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $379
Potential profit: $379
User PnL: -$83.38

Yes position

Over $22M committed to the Space public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $378
Potential profit: $378
User PnL: -$56.7

Yes position

Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $29.48
Potential payout: $268
Potential profit: $238.52
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$77.72

Shanghai Dragons position

KHL: Shanghai Dragons vs. HC Sochi

Ends Jan 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $217
Potential profit: $217
User PnL: -$32.98

No position

Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $194
Potential profit: $194
User PnL: -$65.96

Yes position

Will Peter be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?

Ends Dec 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $154
Potential profit: $154
User PnL: -$26.18

Yes position

Will MicroStrategy be forced to liquidate Bitcoin holdings in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $113
Potential profit: $113
User PnL: -$1.47

Yes position

Ramp IPO in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $94
Potential profit: $94
User PnL: -$1.13

Yes position

Will WOLF win the Orderly trading competition?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $80
User PnL: -$2.16

Yes position

Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66
Potential profit: $66
User PnL: -$6.53

Yes position

Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $63
Potential profit: $63
User PnL: -$1.45

Yes position

Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61
Potential profit: $61
User PnL: -$1.22

Yes position

HumidiFi FDV above $600M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52
Potential profit: $52
User PnL: -$1.09

No position

Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52
Potential profit: $52
User PnL: -$18.39

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52
Potential profit: $52
User PnL: -$1.09

Yes position

Will NFT #494 win the Based trading competition?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$1.1

Yes position

HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49
Potential profit: $49
User PnL: -$4.41

Yes position

Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $48
User PnL: -$2.4

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $361.05

No position

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.84

Yes position

Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.16

No position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.6

Yes position

Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $38.91

Yes position

Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 1.5%
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: $32.2

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win more than 44.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.82

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.88

Yes position

Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Aug 11, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $19.5

No position

Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.84

Yes position

Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17

Yes position

Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.29

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 79.5%
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $16.02

No position

Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in December?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.5

No position

Will Do Kwon be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.23

Yes position

Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.83

No position

Will Elon and DOGE cut 150-200k employees in 2025?

Ends Jan 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.58

No position

Will the Gaza–Israel conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.29

No position

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.41

No position

U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.99

Yes position

Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.98

No position

Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.89

Yes position

Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.64

Yes position

Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.36

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026?

No 67% 49 shares
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026?

No 69% 49 shares
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?

No 65% 142 shares
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?

No 83% 142 shares
Will MrBeast say "Challenge" during his next YouTube video?

No 19% 460 shares
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

No 98.9% 22 shares
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?

No 4.7% 551 shares
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?

No 85.2% 30 shares
Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?

No 82% 57 shares
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?

No 22.9% 551 shares
Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?

No 88% 42 shares
Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?

No 88% 99 shares