Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $207.75
- Potential payout
- $5.54K
- Potential profit
- $5.33K
- Multiplier
- 26.67x
- User PnL
- -$93.75
Polymarket Trader
vincent9111
0x7144f8fa344af262f86b058ba164029c6e946624
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $646.06
- Realized PnL
- $573.48
- Win rate
- 70.8%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $257.02
- Potential payout
- $2.23K
- Potential profit
- $1.98K
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$99.15
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $14.25
- Potential payout
- $1.9K
- Potential profit
- $1.89K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$15.84
Yes position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $86.27
- Potential payout
- $1.45K
- Potential profit
- $1.36K
- Multiplier
- 16.81x
- User PnL
- -$4.72
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.3K
- Potential profit
- $1.3K
- User PnL
- -$36.7
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.02K
- Potential profit
- $1.02K
- User PnL
- -$88.26
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$17.54
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $14.73
- Potential payout
- $950.63
- Potential profit
- $935.9
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$7.47
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $38.5
- Potential payout
- $700
- Potential profit
- $661.5
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$32.5
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $11.9
- Potential payout
- $699.98
- Potential profit
- $688.08
- Multiplier
- 58.82x
- User PnL
- -$14.7
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $600
- User PnL
- -$15.9
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $600
- User PnL
- -$26.3
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $5.25
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $494.75
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$24.75
No position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $433.02
- Potential profit
- $433.02
- User PnL
- -$7.7
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $400
- User PnL
- -$13.4
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $1.2
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $298.8
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.4
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $220
- Potential profit
- $220
- User PnL
- -$44
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $199.5
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.65
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.35
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.85
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58.48
- Potential profit
- $58.48
- User PnL
- -$1.04
Yes position
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $1.78
- Potential payout
- $52.48
- Potential profit
- $50.69
- Multiplier
- 29.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.31
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $6.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $43.75
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.75
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $468.81
Yes position
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $89.78
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $27.4
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- $15.95
Yes position
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.1%
- Multiplier
- 6.62x
- User PnL
- $12.01
Yes position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- $9.5
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.5
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.4
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.2
No position
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.8
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.36
Yes position
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.22
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.32
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.3
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$24.5
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$25.44
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$54.29
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 1% 200 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?Yes 2.8% 449.28 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Yes 0.2% 1,000 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?Yes 0.2% 399.97 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?Yes 0.3% 399.97 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?Yes 0.3% 2,000 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Yes 0.2% 2,300 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Yes 0.2% 2,500 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Yes 0.4% 1,000 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?Yes 0.3% 1,000 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?Yes 0.3% 1,000 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Yes 0.3% 1,599.99 shares